What does the SVB crisis mean for the Dollar and cryptocurrencies?
  financefeeds 2023-05-23 10:01:05
Description:Regarding technical analysis, indicators and price movements indicate an uptrend and a retracement. Eur/USD opened at a 0.39% call spread and set a new high. Currently, the price is trading above the upper Bollinger band orbit and the Ichimoku trading clo

The failure of the SVB led to the distress of the US banking sector, leading to the doubt of interest rate hikes and the depreciation of the dollar, while safe haven assets flourished.


The latest NFP numbers have been released, but all investors have their eyes on the U.S. banking sector this morning. The failure of SVB, the 16th largest bank in the United States, sent shockwaves through American markets and around the world. Silicon Valley is the science and technology center of the United States, accounting for the United States venture capital ⅓.


SVB aimed to raise capital last week while expressing concerns about its performance and the impact of rising interest rates. This has triggered a lack of confidence, with many depositors looking to withdraw their money. By Friday, however, depositors will no longer be able to access their funds.


The real sign of relief for depositors was the announcement by the Federal Reserve, the US Treasury, that all deposits would be guaranteed. Wells Fargo came out and said it seemed like a clear lack of fund diversification had led to the bank's collapse.


So how does an SVB affect tradable assets?


Eur/USD - Will there be further rate hikes?


Investors can see a clear correlation between SVB developments and the US dollar. First, investors are considering whether the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates to 6 percent. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius suggested the bank no longer believes the Fed will raise rates at the next FOMC rate decision. If the Fed does adopt a more dovish stance, the dollar could be negatively impacted. However, until we receive confirmation from the Federal Reserve, this cannot be certain.


The development of SVB is also mainly linked to the US market, and Europe is more or less zero exposure. Again, this is considered negative for the dollar.


Exchange rate prices continued to move against the US dollar during the Asian session this morning. The euro rose against the dollar for four consecutive days and is now at a near four-week high. The decline in the dollar has largely driven price action. The dollar index is down 0.60% in this morning's trading session.


Regarding technical analysis, indicators and price movements indicate an uptrend and a retracement. Eur/USD opened at a 0.39% call spread and set a new high. Currently, the price is trading above the upper Bollinger band orbit and the Ichimoku trading cloud, indicating an upward trend. However, the price formed a divergence on the random oscillator indicator within a 15-minute time frame, which is why a retracer could form. For now, volatility levels are likely to remain high and traders will be keeping a close eye on price movements.


Most economists say the Fed wants a lower CPI reading tomorrow afternoon. If CPI is below 0.4%, the Fed may choose not to raise interest rates by 0.50%. The Fed is less hawkish simply because banks are at risk. Friday's jobs data continued to point to a strong employment sector. Non-farm payrolls remained high at 311,000 and the unemployment rate was confirmed at 3.6%.


Bitcoin - Investors see cryptocurrencies as an alternative


Investors clearly explored alternatives to the dollar and equities over the weekend. To be sure, investors bought a lot of U.S. bonds and even invested in gold. Gold is up 3% since the market opened on Friday. However, even though the market is highly correlated with market risk sentiment, the cryptocurrency market has climbed. Overall, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are simple alternatives to the US dollar and have risen 4% today.


The total cryptocurrency market cap has increased by more than 7% in the last 24 hours, with Bitcoin's market share climbing to 42.26%.


Crude oil fell, but analysts stuck to a price range


Crude oil also experienced higher levels of volatility, falling 1.20% in the last 2 hours. The main concern for oil exporters and companies is whether the economy now faces a higher risk of recession. However, most analysts still believe that unless the SVB crisis turns into a banking crisis, the price of the asset is likely to remain in the $10 price range.


While investors should note that a number of positive factors are also impacting crude prices, the U.S. labor market remains very strong and a less hawkish Fed is known to be good for oil prices. Traders should also note that analysts expect increased volatility across all assets, including oil, in tomorrow's CPI release.


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