At the end of September, the People's Bank of China issued policies to reduce the first set of mortgage interest rates for two consecutive days, including lowering the interest rate of the first set of personal housing provident fund loans and gradually relaxing the lower limit of the interest rate of the first set of housing loans in some cities. Since the release of the above policy, many places have issued documents to implement the policy since October. "Securities Daily" reporter recently interviewed a number of banks and real estate agents to learn that there are already a number of cities, the first suite commercial loan interest rate dropped to below 4%. In addition, many cities have also lowered the interest rate of the first set of personal housing provident fund loans
The interest rate cut again for the market to convey a positive signal, the mortgage interest rate cut means that the purchase of housing groups to further reduce the cost of buying, while the further release of housing demand will help to improve the activity of the real estate market, help to stabilize the purchase of groups, local governments and other relevant subjects on the property market expectations of confidence. As the "one city, one policy" continues to deepen, eligible city governments can independently decide to maintain, reduce or cancel the local first housing commercial personal housing loan interest rate floor, which may mean that the fourth quarter mortgage "interest rate cut" phenomenon will increase.
Mortgage rates fell below 4% in many places
Since the beginning of this year, the multiple downgrades of LPR have led to the continuous decline in the interest rate of residential commercial loans, and the lower limit of the interest rate of the first suite loan in most cities has reached the standard of 4.1%. On September 29, the People's Bank of China and the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued a notice saying that for the cities where the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings from June to August 2022 have declined consecutively and year-on-year, the lower limit of the interest rate of commercial individual housing loans for the first housing will be gradually relaxed before the end of 2022, that is, the eligible cities will be allowed to lower the interest rate of first housing loans again. After the release of the above policy, many places have lowered the interest rate of the first suite of commercial loans.
Recently, the reporter learned from the individual loan personnel of some banks in Tianjin and Shijiazhuang and a number of real estate agents that since October 14, banks in Shijiazhuang, Tianjin and other places will follow up to reduce the interest rate of the first home loan. Among them, many banks in the Tianjin area have lowered the first-home loan interest rate from 4.1% to 3.9%, while many banks in the Shijiazhuang area have lowered the first-home loan interest rate from 4.1% to 3.8%. According to incomplete statistics, as of now, there have been many cities such as Shandong Jining, Guangzhou Qingyuan and Yangjiang, Guizhou Guiyang, Hubei Wuhan and Yichang, Xiangyang and other first suite loan interest rates broke the lower limit of 4.1%, the lowest fell to 3.7%.
In addition to cities that meet the requirements, most of the other cities that do not meet the interest rate reduction stage still implement the first set of 4.1% and the second set of 4.9% commercial mortgage interest rates. First-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have implemented higher standards.
In addition to the first commercial loan interest rate reduction, the first set of personal housing provident fund loan interest rates in many places have also been reduced. On September 30, the People's Bank of China announced that since October 1, 2022, the first set of personal housing provident fund loan interest rate will be lowered by 0.15 percentage points. According to the reporter, since October, a number of cities, including Beijing, announced the implementation of the provident fund interest rate reduction policy announced by the People's Bank of China, after the adjustment, the interest rate below 5 years (including 5 years) and more than 5 years are reduced by 15 percentage points, respectively, to 2.6% and 3.1%.
Guan Rongxue believes that in the market is in the stage of steady repair, the property market toughness of the first and second tier cities mainly rely on their own adjustment mechanism, the dependence on loose policies is light, in adhere to the "housing does not speculate" positioning, such urban policy adjustments are more cautious, mortgage policy may maintain the status quo or slightly relaxed trend. Of course, it is not ruled out that in the case of obstacles in the market repair process, the mortgage policy end of other first - and second-tier cities will be gradually relaxed.
The repair of the property market is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter
The People's Bank of China recently released a financial statistics report for the first three quarters of 2022, showing that RMB loans increased by 18.08 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 1.36 trillion yuan year-on-year. By sector, household loans increased by 3.41 trillion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 1.09 trillion yuan and medium - and long-term loans increased by 2.32 trillion yuan.
In the view of Guan Rongxue, in September, residents' medium and long-term loans increased by 345.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 121.1 billion yuan, but the increase rate continued to narrow. It can be seen that under the further increase of policies such as interest rate cuts and the supply and demand ends of the real estate market, market confidence has gradually been restored, boosting residential mortgage loan demand.
Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, told reporters that residents' medium and long-term loans increased significantly in the first three quarters of this year, mainly due to the rapid decline in new residential mortgages, which is confirmed by the sharp decline in property sales this year. This is also the main reason for the recent regulatory layer to continue to guide residents' mortgage interest rates to reduce, which means that adjusting mortgage interest rates is the key to affecting residents' medium - and long-term loans and the property market.
According to incomplete statistics of the Middle Finger Institute, since the beginning of this year, many provinces and cities in the country have relaxed real estate regulation policies from the aspects of reducing the down payment ratio, issuing house purchase subsidies, and increasing the amount of provident fund loans, and the demand-side policies have continued to exert force. Since the second half of the year, the pace of urban policy has accelerated, and only in the third quarter, more than 300 property market policies have been introduced.
Under the favorable policies, the confidence of home buyers has recovered. Recently, the People's Bank of China released a questionnaire survey report on urban savers in the third quarter of 2022, showing that 17.1% of residents intend to buy homes in the next three months, which is higher than the 16.9% in the second quarter.
Industry insiders believe that with the release of the housing market policy, the gradual deepening of local policies due to the city is of great significance for boosting the real estate market, which is conducive to promoting rigidity and improving the release of housing demand, and the real estate market is expected to accelerate repair in the fourth quarter.
Wang Qing believes that even if the MLF interest rate remains unchanged in the fourth quarter, driven by the recent sharp reduction in bank deposit interest rates, the probability of the 5-year LPR offer falling by 15 basis points to 30 basis points. This will lead to a larger reduction in mortgage interest rates across the country, including in first - and second-tier cities. Depending on the operation of the property market in the later stage, it is not ruled out that some cities may lower the lower limit of the interest rate of two sets of mortgages.
Source: Securities Daily
