Oil and gas sector 10 day day power up, as of press, oil sector, Beken energy limit, quasi oil shares rose about 9%, Zhongman oil, new wave energy, Bomaike, etc. rose about 7%, CNOOC rose more than 5%, China oil rose nearly 4%; The gas sector is also strong, as of press, the victory shares rose nearly 8%, water gas rose about 7%, Xinao shares, Buddha fuel energy rose more than 5%.
On October 5, local time, the 33rd ministerial meeting of OPEC+ decided to cut crude oil production by 2 million barrels per day since November, setting the largest Opec oil production cut since the new coronavirus epidemic.
In this regard, CICC said that the OPEC+ more than expected substantial production cuts or will make the market on the supply side of the risk to be corrected, supply and demand expectations or will be loose to tighten, you can see that short-term crude oil prices have rebounded significantly, Brent crude oil prices from 88 US dollars/barrel quickly rose 11% to 98 US dollars/barrel. Superimposed oil consumption officially entered the peak season, the EU sanctions against Russia are about to be implemented, we estimate that in the fourth quarter of 2022, global oil or face a supply and demand gap of 1 million barrels/day, and Brent crude oil prices may return to the forecast range of 100-110 US dollars/barrel.
Cinda Securities pointed out that based on the actual production of OPEC-10 countries in August, we calculate that OPEC-10 production will be cut by at least 850,000 barrels per day in November. At the same time, the United States will release 10 million barrels of crude oil reserves in November, an average of about 330,000 barrels per day, or will partially offset the impact of OPEC production cuts. The agency believes that in the fourth quarter of 2022, the crude oil demand side mainly considers the possibility of crude oil replacing natural gas power generation in the winter of Europe, and the demand for heating oil in the winter of the United States has increased; The crude oil supply side mainly considers the implementation of OPEC+ substantial production cuts in November, as well as the phased embargo of Russian crude oil and the price limit ban of Russian oil by the EU in December. In summary, in the fourth quarter of 2022, crude oil supply will tighten, demand will grow, crude oil will be in the destocking stage, and the oil price center is expected to rise.
Shengang Securities also said that in the fourth quarter, crude oil supply and demand are expected to be tightly balanced. The supply side has limited room for growth in the fourth quarter. Lower upstream capital spending in the United States and shareholder returns constrain further oil and gas development, and while shale oil production is recovering, it is unlikely to return to previous highs. In addition, the lack of trust between Iran and the United States is expected to make new progress in the Iranian nuclear agreement in the short term. On the demand side, the high price of natural gas in Europe, coupled with the natural gas leakage of the "Nord Stream 1" and "Nord Stream 2" natural gas pipelines due to underwater explosions, the demand for gas to oil in Europe in the fourth quarter may increase.
The agency believes that oil and gas prices are expected to maintain long-term prosperity, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the two main lines of the petrochemical sector: 1) the oilfield service sector that benefits from the rise in oil and gas prices; 2) As the main raw material of refinery, crude oil has a certain cost promotion effect on downstream finished products. The price trend of oil-based petrochemical products is basically similar to the trend of international oil prices. In the context of the sustained boom in crude oil prices, the demand for replenishment of downstream finished products will be strengthened, and the gross profit of refining and chemical products is expected to expand, enhancing the stability of refining and chemical profits.
Source: Beijing Business Daily
