Since hitting a peak of $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin has lost more than half its value, clouding market sentiment. Amidst spreading pessimism, however, some veteran holders point out that this decline does not deviate from Bitcoin's trajectory over the past decade, suggesting the so-called four-year cycle may be playing out once again. Based on historical patterns, 2026 could mark the end of this adjustment phase, with a new upward trend potentially emerging between 2027 and 2028.
For investors long focused on the cryptocurrency sector, cyclical volatility remains one of Bitcoin's most distinct features. Over the past decade, the asset has repeatedly shown a pattern of three consecutive years of gains followed by one year of deep correction, and the current trend seems to be replicating this path. Statistics show Bitcoin recorded growth of 156% and 121% in 2023 and 2024 respectively, reaching an all-time high in October 2025. Entering 2026, prices fell back to around $60,000, a drop of over 50% from the peak.
Looking back at previous cycles, such a correction magnitude is not unexpected. In the last cycle, Bitcoin touched a high of about $69,000 in November 2021, followed by a 64% decline the next year. Earlier, in 2017, prices neared $20,000 before plunging 73% in 2018. In comparison, while the current nearly 50% drop is alarming, viewed from a historical perspective, it has not yet touched the lows of the previous two bear markets.
Market analysis generally believes the core driver of Bitcoin's cyclical volatility stems from its halving mechanism. According to network design, miner rewards halve approximately every four years, thereby inhibiting the speed of new supply. Most past bull markets occurred within 12 to 18 months after a halving. The most recent halving occurred in 2024, with the next expected around April 2028. This supply contraction mechanism is seen as important logical support for the recurring cycles.
Although long-term logic remains, short-term market pressure cannot be ignored. If this adjustment magnitude aligns with historical averages, Bitcoin theoretically still faces risks of dipping to the $50,000 region or even lower. Additionally, Fed monetary policy expectations, USD trends, and institutional capital outflows from Bitcoin ETFs are dampening market risk appetite. Recently, several financial institutions noted Bitcoin is gradually evolving into a high-risk institutional asset, its performance increasingly linked to the global liquidity environment rather than being a speculative asset dominated by retail investors as in the early days.
Amid current market uncertainty, optimists are setting their sights on the next cycle window. Calculating based on the rhythm of the past three bull-bear transitions, 2027 is expected to become an important point for the market to re-enter an upward channel, while the 2028 halving event could further reinforce bull market expectations. For those convinced of Bitcoin's long-term value, the current market resembles a trough within the cycle. After all, while history does not simply repeat itself, it often rhymes; the true variable lies in when the global liquidity environment eases again.
