Driven by both geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic data, the global commodity market has recently exhibited a divergent trend. While the energy and base metal sectors continue to strengthen amid supply concerns, precious metals face downward pressure due to robust US economic data.
The volatile situation in the Middle East remains a core variable driving energy market fluctuations. Although rumors of a peace agreement regarding the Strait of Hormuz initially sparked market volatility, subsequent firm signals prompted traders to re-evaluate risks. On Tuesday, international oil prices ultimately closed slightly higher, with New York's WTI crude oil futures settling at $93.76 per barrel and Brent crude closing at $96 per barrel. Analysts note that if related conflicts lead to an extended blockage of key shipping lanes, crude oil inventories could deplete rapidly, posing a risk of further price surges.
Regarding base metals, expectations of supply disruptions combined with structural demand drove prices higher. LME copper futures surpassed the $14,000 per ton threshold, closing at $14,040.5 and hitting a multi-year high. Meanwhile, LME aluminum climbed to a four-year-plus high, with tin, zinc, lead, and other metals posting broad gains. Industry analysts suggest that demand growth fueled by artificial intelligence expansion and the energy transition, alongside potential supply chain disruptions, has created a tight supply-demand balance. Notably, tin prices, crucial for electronics manufacturing, are nearing historic record highs.
In contrast, the precious metals market was heavily weighed down by US employment data. Spot gold briefly rallied during the session, but following the release of job openings data, gains narrowed considerably, closing at $4,489.11 per ounce. Data indicated that US job openings in April increased unexpectedly, surpassing market expectations. This reinforced market expectations of a prolonged high-interest rate environment, exerting downward pressure on gold prices. While spot silver saw some gains, it remained constrained by broader macro sentiment. Market focus has now shifted to the upcoming Non-Farm Payrolls report, which will further illuminate the true health of the labor market and influence future pricing trends.
