Against a backdrop of intertwined macroeconomic volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, China's futures market has recently witnessed explosive growth. Latest statistics show that in the first quarter of 2026, the national futures market accumulated a total trading turnover of 256.71 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 58.43%. March's performance was particularly striking, with single-month turnover historically breaking the 100 trillion yuan threshold to reach 100.85 trillion yuan, signaling a significant boost in market activity.

Behind these impressive figures, precious metals, particularly gold, emerged as the primary driver. In March this year, gold futures turnover exceeded 10 trillion yuan, specifically recording 10.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year surge of 68.55%, accounting for 10.4% of the total national futures market turnover for the month and maintaining historical highs. Beyond turnover, gold trading activity also surged, with transaction volume reaching 9.742 million lots, up 8.78% year-on-year. On the turnover rankings of major exchanges, gold secured the top spot at the Shanghai Futures Exchange, outperforming commodities like silver and crude oil. Market analysts suggest this phenomenon reflects that under conditions of slowing global economic recovery and shifting expectations regarding major economies' monetary policies, the safe-haven attributes of precious metals are increasingly recognized by institutional and individual investors alike.

Aside from gold's leading position, the first-quarter growth of the futures market showed a broad-based rally pattern, indicating vigorous hedging demand from the real economy. Interest in new energy metals remained high, with lithium carbonate futures turnover increasing nearly 4.7 times year-on-year, continuing last year's strong performance. As the new energy vehicle industry chain continues to expand, price volatility risks for upstream raw materials have intensified, prompting relevant enterprises to increase their use of futures instruments. The energy and chemicals sector also saw significant movements, with fuel oil futures March turnover growing substantially by 244.55% year-on-year, making it one of the varieties with the largest increase. This is linked to fluctuations in the international crude oil market and also reflects the urgent demand for price certainty within the shipping and energy sectors amidst uncertainty.

The surge in trading volume is not merely speculative hype. As of the end of March 2026, China had listed 165 futures and options varieties, covering major sectors vital to the national economy such as agricultural products, metals, energy, and chemicals. Data from the first quarter showed that financial futures also performed steadily, with the China Financial Futures Exchange (CFFEX) accounting for 25.84% of the national market turnover in March. Among them, CSI 1000 stock index futures ranked first in turnover. This dual-drive structure of commodities and finance indicates that the futures market is not only serving risk management for the real economy but also providing refined risk management tools for the capital market. Under the current global macro environment, the role of the futures market as a shock absorber for the real economy is being further reinforced.