Beijing time on Tuesday (February 6) 11:30, the Reserve Bank of Australia will announce the interest rate resolution, the market is widely expected to maintain the current interest rate at 4.35 unchanged, which will be the second consecutive meeting to stabilize the interest rate at 4.35%. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release new economic forecasts and analysts expect the central bank to counter market expectations of a rate cut. In addition, at 12:30, the president of the Reserve Bank of Australia will attend a press conference, which investors also need to pay attention to.

Below is a summary of the institutions and analysts looking ahead to the RBA rate decision.

[Wells Fargo Bank ahead of the RBA interest rate decision]

Wells Fargo said the RBA may opt to hold rates steady at 4.35 percent for a second consecutive meeting. "While the RBA's December statement opened the door to further rate hikes, we believe the RBA's tightening cycle is over."

"Although we don't think the RBA will cut rates yet. For now, inflation and wage growth are likely to remain too high to be consistent with the 2% to 3% inflation target. As a result, we do not expect the first RBA rate cut until the third quarter of this year."

[Citibank looks ahead to RBA interest rate decision]

Citibank said it expected the RBA to leave the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent, the peak of the rate hike cycle. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release new economic forecasts.

The main focus of the new forecasts will be when the RBA expects inflation to fall back to its 2 to 3 per cent target range after weaker-than-expected inflation in the fourth quarter. Crucially, the RBA is unlikely to make a dovish turn and signal a rate cut any time soon. We expect the RBA to cut rates by 25 basis points in the third quarter, followed by 25 basis points in the fourth quarter, leaving the year-end cash rate at 3.85%.

【 Standard Chartered Bank ahead of the RBA interest rate decision 】

Standard Chartered said it expects the RBA to keep rates unchanged at 4.35% at its first meeting of the year. The bank believes that the recent CPI data may provide some breathing room for the RBA to wait and see. CPI inflation eased to 4.3 per cent in November from 4.9 per cent a year earlier. However, the services CPI remained unchanged at 4.7%. Similarly, the labor market has softened a bit (the unemployment rate rose to 3.9 percent in December), but remains at tight levels.

[Westpac Bank looks ahead to RBA interest rate decision]

Westpac chief economist Luci Ellis said the Reserve Bank of Australia was expected to keep the cash rate on hold and was unlikely to raise it further this cycle.

The RBA is unlikely to completely rule out further rate hikes in its post-meeting communication, but the case for a rate hike is gradually losing traction from here on out, it said. "We expect that further declines in inflation and weaker outcomes in the real economy over the coming months will give the RBA sufficient confidence that inflation will return to target on the expected timetable." So they will have room to reduce some of the current policy constraints. We continue to expect the first rate cut to come no earlier than September."

[Analysts: The Reserve Bank of Australia will fight back against market interest rate cut expectations]

Analyst Kenny Fisher said the RBA is expected to keep its benchmark rate at 4.35 percent at its first meeting in 2024. Although inflation has been falling and retail sales slumped in December, the RBA has been reluctant to start cutting interest rates since raising rates in November. The battle against inflation still has some way to go, with inflation currently running at an annual rate of 3.4 percent, which is near the top of the RBA's target range of 1 to 3 percent, but as the Fed has experienced in its battle to curb inflation, the last mile is proving the toughest.

"For the RBA's action today, with inflation still high and persistent, we are likely to see it remain cautious and push back against rate cut expectations." The struggling Aussie dollar could get a boost if Fed Chairman Bullock sticks to his hawkish stance."

[ING Bank ahead of the RBA interest rate decision]

Ing said there was virtually no prospect of any change in the RBA's policy stance. Supported by recent inflation data, cash rate futures are now pricing in a more than 50 per cent chance of the RBA easing in May. However, "we think the inflation picture is not as impressive as it looks and is largely driven by base effects, while monthly readings remain high." We expect inflation to start moving higher in January and February, which could lead to a pullback in rate cut expectations. The RBA may use this opportunity to slightly delay market pricing and accelerate the adjustment of market rate cut expectations."

[TD Securities looks ahead to RBA interest rate decision]

Td Securities said it expected the RBA to keep the cash rate at 4.35 per cent and support a policy stance of "keep rates on hold for longer" rather than consider the possibility of an early cut. While the Q4 CPI report shows the RBA making good progress in the inflation battle, the underlying details point to greater domestic price pressures and the RBA may be cautious about suddenly signalling a rate cut earlier this year.

"We expect the RBA to cut rates in August and cut the average inflation forecast to 3% in Q4 2024, 2 quarters earlier than the November forecast, reinforcing our rate cut expectations." "Unless the RBA forecasts a significant rise in unemployment, we doubt the likelihood of an early rate cut before August."

Societe Generale: The RBA may hold fire, but we believe policymakers will not remove the tightening bias from the statement.