The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday (Nov. 1), and as the release time approaches, here are the forecasts of analysts and researchers at 14 major banks.

The Federal Reserve is set to leave interest rates unchanged for a second straight meeting, but Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to continue raising rates. Updated macro forecasts and dot plots won't be released until the December meeting.

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Danske Bank

We expect the Fed to remain on hold at the November meeting, in line with consensus and market pricing. With financial conditions tightening significantly, we doubt that the Fed will choose to raise rates at a later stage. The rising term premium suggests that the rise in yields is being driven by something other than the Fed's forward guidance, which could trigger a more cautious tone from Powell.

Anz Bank

We expect the FOMC to leave rates unchanged and that attention in the coming months will turn to how long rates need to remain at peak levels. We believe that recent developments in core inflation and the labor market support our analysis that interest rates have peaked. However, the risk that growth will remain strong in the coming months is a wild card that needs to be acknowledged. Therefore, we remain focused on the upcoming economic data.

Commerzbank

The Fed is likely to keep the federal funds target range at 5.25% to 5.50%. Only if the recent very high pace of growth does not abate would further rate hikes be expected, but not before December at the earliest.

Nordea Bank

The Fed meeting is likely to be a fairly quiet affair. The Fed left interest rates unchanged at 5.25% to 5.5%. With no new forecasts, Powell's press conference will be the most important for investors. In our view, even with the strong macro data released in the US last week, the Fed remains unconvinced that another rate hike is still needed. Nor does it mean a rate cut is imminent. The Fed will still stress the upside risks to inflation and the need to keep interest rates higher for longer.

ING

Following the recent spike in Treasury yields that has tightened financial conditions across the economy, we do not expect any change in policy rates. Markets appear to be doing the heavy lifting, so there is no need for the Fed to do more - even though economic growth and the job market remain hot and inflation remains well above target. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has also acknowledged that there is a long and variable lag between the implementation of rate hikes and real-world effects, suggesting that the full impact of policy tightening may not yet be fully felt.

Deutsche Bank

We expect the Fed to remain on hold and view future rate hikes as a function of financial conditions and the path of the economy. While our baseline is for rates to remain at 5.3% through year-end, we see a growing risk of a December or first-quarter rate hike.

Td Securities

The Fed is widely expected to extend its rate hike pause again, leaving the federal funds target range unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% for a second consecutive meeting. We expect the Fed to maintain its overall hawkish policy bias as it remains consistent with additional rate hikes signaled via the dot plot. However, the Fed will reiterate that it will "proceed cautiously" in setting its next policy steps.

Rabobank

We expect the FOMC to remain on hold, emphasizing its data dependency and intention to proceed cautiously. At the press conference, we expect Powell to keep the door open for a December rate hike. For the rest of the year, however, we expect the bond market to do the Fed's job, making further policy rate hikes redundant. At the same time, the Fed's focus is likely to shift from how high to raise policy rates to how long to keep them at restrictive levels.

National Bank of Canada

The Fed is prepared to leave the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent to 5.50 per cent. Chairman Powell said policymakers could proceed with caution "given the uncertainties and risks, and the progress we have made." In addition, some FOMC participants indicated that an increase in long-term interest rates could supersede additional policy increases.

Royal Bank of Canada

The Fed is widely expected to hold interest rates steady again in October after abandoning the move in September. U.S. economic growth data have remained unusually resilient, but inflation pressures moderated over the summer, giving the Federal Reserve plenty of patience to wait for already-high interest rates to slow growth.

Societe Generale

Inflation has come down from its highs, but core inflation, at just under 4 per cent, remains well above target. We think the Fed needs to stay on hold. We view the current rate of 5.25%-5.50% as appropriately restrictive given current inflation and economic growth, but it will become increasingly restrictive if inflation subsides as expected. Fed officials have said they want more information on how the economy is responding to rising yields before taking further steps. We expect that by early next year, inflationary pressures will likely subside and economic growth will slow to a pace that will allow the Fed to keep interest rates on hold. A rate cut is our view of the next move in the federal funds rate, but we expect weak employment around mid-2024 to need to be a trigger for such action.

Bank of Montreal

We do not expect a change in Fed policy. A long pause is possible, but it is too early to rule out another rate hike on December 13 or in late January. We expect economic indicators to weaken substantially over the next month or two, enough to prevent further rate hikes. With the lagged impact of policy rate hikes and reduced excess savings and tighter credit conditions, we think headwinds from rising bond yields, the recovery of student loan payments and the auto workers' strike should play a role. There is also the risk of a possible government shutdown (after November 17) and a potential spike in oil prices due to political developments. However, our expectations of the indicators may prove to be wrong; If so, our call for the current federal funds target range (5.25% to 5.50%) would also be the highest point for interest rates in this tightening cycle.

Citibank

We don't expect the Fed to raise rates. However, given the strong economic data and the stronger September core CPI and PCE data, the Fed and Chairman Jerome Powell may want to retain the selectivity of their language. It would not be surprising if the Fed added some language about determining how long to keep the policy rate at a restrictive level. Chairman Powell will again attempt to walk the tightrope in his press conference, emphasizing that at this juncture, the FOMC should proceed cautiously in its upcoming meetings. As he did in a recent speech, he is likely to explicitly link caution in the rate hike process to a rapid rise in long-term yields. He may also recognise that the resilience of the economy to date and upside risks to inflation remain, which could mean that policy rates need to remain high for some time.

Wells Fargo Bank

We expect the Fed to leave the target range unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50%. While inflation is returning to the 2% target, there is still further progress to be made. We believe that the FOMC will want to keep the option of further tightening on the table and therefore believe that it may be appropriate for the post-meeting statement to retain language indicating further tightening. While we acknowledge that the Fed is likely to raise rates by 25 basis points before the end of the year, we still expect the final rate for this cycle to have been reached.