On Tuesday (September 5th), Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that given recent data showing inflation continuing to slow, policymakers have room to bear the burden of "cautiously advancing" interest rate hikes. Waller's speech caused the price of gold to rise and then fall back.

In late US trading, spot gold closed at 1924.96 US dollars per ounce, down 13.21 US dollars per ounce, or 0.68%. It hit a high of 1938.97 US dollars per ounce on the day and a low of 1924.96 US dollars per ounce, a new low in the past week.

COMEX October gold futures closed 0.07% lower at $1947.00 per ounce. COMEX December gold futures closed 0.06% lower at $1965.90 per ounce.

COMEX October silver futures closed 2.76% lower at $23.661 per ounce. COMEX December silver futures closed 2.80% lower at $23.873 per ounce.

CME "Federal Reserve Observation": The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged from 5.25% to 5.50% in September is 92%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the range of 5.50% to 5.75% is 8%; The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by November is 54.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point increase is 42.0%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point increase is 3.2%.

China's Caixin Service Industry PMI is at the level of the pandemic lockdown period, the latest in a series of weak data from the world's second largest economy, and data shows that business activity in the eurozone fell faster than initially expected last month.

Caixin China's service industry PMI recorded 51.8 in August, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points from July, lower than expected and the lowest for the year, but still above the boom and bust line. As for August, Caixin China's comprehensive PMI slightly decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 51.7, the lowest since February.

Simon Harvey, director of European foreign exchange analysis at Monex, said: "The dual drivers of the strengthening of the US dollar - the rising yield of US treasury bond bonds and weak economic growth outside the US - are still operating at a high speed."

Recent US economic data supports soft landing bets, as concerns about inflation and recession have eased, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve may not need to further raise interest rates.

As excess savings in the United States approach depletion and credit card debt issues become apparent, it may encourage more people to return to the labor market, leading to an increase in unemployment, a slowdown in wage growth, and even a rise in the number of new applicants. However, it is expected that the overall uneven performance of the US economic data may continue until more data provides evidence.

After the August ISM manufacturing PMI in the United States was better than expected, the market may focus on the August ISM non manufacturing PMI released on Wednesday (September 6th), with a consensus expectation of 52.5, which may put pressure on the US dollar and boost gold prices.

Regarding the trend of gold, Lukman Otunuga, a senior research analyst at Futuo, said: "At the same time, gold prices show signs of exhaustion on the daily chart, falling below the 50 day moving average and starting the path towards a decline towards $1920. On the contrary, if the level of $1935 is proven to be reliable support, prices may retest the 100 day moving average near $1953

Institutional comments

(1) Gold prices seem to be looking for new fundamental catalysts to trigger their next major trend, "said Lukman Otunuga, a senior research analyst at Futuo, in a report

(2) The expectation that the Federal Reserve will adopt a dovish stance in September limits the downward space for gold prices, "said Carlo Alberto De Casa, a market analyst at Kinesis Money

(3) According to Economies.com, due to the important bearish pattern of double peaks in the technical aspect of gold prices, there is a risk of further decline in the future.

(4) Anil Panchal, an analyst at renowned financial website FXStreet, recently wrote that China's Caixin Service Industry PMI and US factory orders will be the focus of economic data on this trading day. Panchal wrote that the market's response to China's August Caixin Service Industry PMI and US July factory orders will be an important factor in observing clear direction. Most importantly, the latest news on the Fed's next steps, clues to China's economic recovery, and stimulus measures will be crucial for gold traders to pay attention to new drivers.

Focus on Wednesday (Beijing time)

Pending the opening of a new round of price adjustment window for domestic refined oil products;

09:30 Australia's second quarter GDP annual rate;

17: Monthly retail sales rate for July in the 00 Eurozone;

20: 30 US July trade accounts;

Bank of England Governor Bailey gave testimony at 21:15;

21:45 Markit Service Industry PMI Final Value for August in the United States;

22:00 Canada to September 6th Central Bank interest rate decision;

22:00 US August ISM non manufacturing PMI;

The next day at 02:00, the Federal Reserve announced the Brown Book of Economic Conditions;

API crude oil inventory for the week from 04:30 the next day to September 1st in the United States