On October 24, the National Development and Reform Commission issued an announcement that according to the recent changes in the international market oil price, in accordance with the current oil product price formation mechanism, from 24 o 'clock on October 24, 2022, the domestic gas and diesel prices (standard products) will be raised by 185 yuan and 175 yuan per ton respectively.
Zhuo Chuang information refined oil research team believes that in this round of price adjustment cycle, international oil prices have fluctuated and fallen, but the rate of change of crude oil continues to run in a positive range. In fact, since the beginning of this year, affected by the international situation, international crude oil prices have continued to rise, although in recent months, international crude oil prices have fallen from the previous high, but the overall crude oil prices are still at a high level during the year.
In the first three quarters, benefiting from high international oil prices, the oil service industry continued to rise. Data show that the performance of listed oil service companies that have disclosed three quarterly reports or three quarterly performance forecasts in the first three quarters has risen sharply. In addition, recently, more than a number of listed companies in the oil service industry disclosed large business orders, and the industry prosperity has rebounded significantly.
On the evening of October 24, CNOOC Development disclosed three quarterly reports, benefiting from the seven-year action plan to increase reserves on production, CNOOC development products, technical services workload increased year-on-year, the first three quarters of CNOOC development to achieve operating income of 31.361 billion yuan, an increase of 22.98%, net profit of 1.841 billion yuan, an increase of 37.15%.
As of the evening of October 24, four listed companies in the oil service industry disclosed three quarterly reports, all of which achieved a year-on-year increase in net profit. Among them, potential Hengxin achieved operating income of 31.36 billion yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 22.98%, and net profit of 43 million yuan to the mother, an increase of 65.31%. For the reasons for the growth in performance, potential Hengxin said that it was mainly caused by the rise in oil prices during the period and the increase in gross profit of oil and gas exploitation.
In addition, CNOOC disclosed the performance forecast, the first three quarters of the company's net profit is expected to be 107.8 billion yuan to 109.8 billion yuan, compared with the same period last year, an increase of 55 billion yuan to 57 billion yuan, an increase of about 104% to 108%.
Cnooc said that in the first three quarters of 2022, it seized the favorable opportunity of rising oil prices, continued to increase exploration and development efforts, achieved positive results in increasing storage and production, improving quality and efficiency, and reached a new record high in oil and gas production in the same period in history, further consolidated cost competitive advantages, and significantly improved profitability.
Jin Lianchuang crude oil analyst Han Zhengji told the Securities Daily reporter that although the international oil price fluctuated greatly in the third quarter and fell once, from a long-term perspective, the international oil price in the first three quarters was still high relative to 2019. In recent years, domestic oil enterprises have maintained steady growth in terms of oil extraction, and there is still room for growth.
In addition to the outstanding performance of the first three quarters, many oil service companies have also disclosed large business orders recently. On October 24, COSL announced that recently, the company signed a number of long-term contracts for drilling platform services with first-class international oil companies in the Middle East, with a total contract value of about 14 billion yuan.
On the same day, another listed company in the oil service sector disclosed the latest order situation. According to the announcement of petrochemical oil service, because the company seized the favorable opportunity of the continued high international oil prices and the recovery of the oil service industry, and fully expanded the market, the company achieved new market contracts from January to September this year, and the cumulative new contract amount reached 65.42 billion yuan, an increase of 11.8%, and the new single project of over 100 million yuan reached 103.
International oil prices are volatile, and institutions expect limited room for price declines
Affected by the "Opec +" production cut at the beginning of this month, international oil prices have recently rebounded. As of 17:00 Beijing time on October 24, Brent crude oil futures fell 1.83% to $91.78 per barrel; New York crude was down 2.17 percent at $83.22 a barrel.
For the subsequent trend of oil prices, many industry insiders believe that it will maintain a volatile operation. Han Zhengji believes that for the reasons for international oil price fluctuations, the analysis from the supply side is mainly due to the decision of "Opec +" at the meeting in early October to lower monthly production by 2 million barrels per day from November.
From the demand side analysis, the major economies in Europe and the United States have led to the overall pressure on the economy, and the demand for crude oil is relatively weak, and it is expected that the fourth quarter of this year will not be lifted. However, after entering the winter, due to the shortage of natural gas, Europe may "stockpile" energy, including oil, in advance, which will support oil prices in the short term. Overall, oil prices are expected to remain volatile this year, and the volatility is likely to be large, between $75 and $95 per barrel.
Zhuo Chuang information refined oil analyst Yang Xia told the "Securities Daily" reporter that in the later stage, the situation in Eastern Europe makes the winter European energy supply tension worry is not reduced, and the "Opec +" alliance's production reduction action, to the international crude oil market has brought positive support, crude oil prices have limited space to decline, but the global oil demand growth is expected to decline concerns still lingering. Crude oil prices may remain range-bound.
Source: Securities Daily
