The Middle East war has dragged on into its ninth month, and the prospect of peace remains elusive, with tensions instead showing signs of reigniting. President Donald Trump had earlier predicted that the fighting would end within weeks, but the current trajectory has clearly moved beyond that expectation.
As the US midterm elections approach on November 3, Trump has repeatedly signaled that, after the vote, US forces in the Middle East may resume military strikes on Iran. To broaden the tactical options available to frontline commanders, Washington has dispatched a third carrier strike group toward the Persian Gulf and deployed an additional 10,000 sailors and Marines. At the same time, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth made a sudden visit to Israel recently, meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just days before a sensitive domestic vote on Netanyahu’s re-election bid.
Facing a steadily rising threat, US military bases in the Middle East that were previously hit by fierce Iranian retaliation have begun reducing troop deployments. The US State Department has also updated travel warnings for more than a dozen countries in the Gulf and Middle East, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Israel, citing serious damage being inflicted on local airports and energy facilities by Houthi drone and missile attacks. In addition, an internal US intelligence memorandum warned that Iranian plots to carry out deadly attacks against American citizens have reached an advanced stage.
According to people familiar with the matter, Tehran is fully preparing for a possible new wave of US airstrikes around the midterm elections and plans to retaliate against targets in the Middle East, including Israel and the United Arab Emirates, if necessary. Analysts believe the window between the end of the US election and the convening of the new Congress in January next year will be the most dangerous phase. Breaking the current stalemate may require a compromise deal that allows both sides to claim victory publicly.
Shipping security officials said Iran has recently increased both the frequency and destructiveness of attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and surrounding waters, and has begun using more powerful guided missiles. Several international relations experts said all signs indicate that large-scale bombing could resume at any time. For Trump, the odds of acting before the midterm elections are very low, because high fuel prices have already put pressure on Republican prospects. A new conflict, however, could help Netanyahu take the initiative in the campaign and even force his political rivals into forming a coalition government.
Some observers argue that both Trump and Netanyahu may see the conflict as a shortcut out of their political predicaments, but if it spirals out of control, the war could also become the grave that buries their political futures. A European diplomat said candidly that domestic elections in the US and Israel have multiplied the difficulty of diplomatic mediation, and the international community must exert more pressure before the situation gets completely out of hand. Although the White House has recently intensified its naval blockade and economic sanctions against Iran, and the blockade has already produced tangible effects, diplomatic channels have not been fully shut. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi recently said Tehran would be willing to give diplomacy another chance if Washington demonstrated a sincere willingness to reach a fair solution, but he also acknowledged that there is little sign of a near-term opportunity for substantive progress.
