The precious metals market staged a robust rebound on Tuesday, with gold prices surging past the $4,400 milestone to hit their highest level in over two months. Market data showed spot gold gaining 0.4% to $4,408.34 per ounce, while gold futures posted a more pronounced 1.1% rise to $4,466.70. Silver and platinum also advanced in tandem, with spot silver edging up 0.2% to $65.84 an ounce and spot platinum climbing 0.2% to $1,759.96 an ounce. This rally not only extended the upward momentum sparked by the unexpected drop in U.S. nonfarm payrolls but also marked the highest single-day closing record in nearly 10 weeks.
Notably, this strong push higher occurred against the traditional headwinds of a strengthening U.S. dollar, rising U.S. Treasury yields, and climbing energy prices. Typically, these macroeconomic factors exert significant downward pressure on non-yielding precious metals, yet the market is exhibiting a markedly different trajectory. Market analysts attribute this remarkable resilience to the confluence of multiple buying forces. On the one hand, investors who missed the opportunity to build positions during the previous pullback to around $4,000 are exhibiting clear fear of missing out and chasing the rally. On the other hand, concentrated covering of speculative short positions and a renewed influx of safe-haven funds have jointly propelled the upward momentum of gold prices.
On the fundamental front, investors are turning their attention to the U.S. Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index releases due this week. These two crucial inflation metrics will provide vital clues for the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy path. Current interest rate futures data indicate that traders' expectations for further rate hikes by the Fed in September and December remain elevated, with the probability of a December hike already priced in at over 80%. Although a high-interest-rate environment theoretically diminishes the appeal of gold, the market is evidently placing greater weight on other supportive factors.
Official buying from China has emerged as one of the core forces stabilizing gold prices. The latest official data revealed that the People's Bank of China significantly increased its gold reserves in July, marking the largest monthly gain since October 2023 and further confirming the long-term trend of official sectors continuously optimizing their reserve structures. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have added fuel to safe-haven sentiment. Iran disclosed that it is in intensive negotiations with Oman regarding a new shipping route in the Strait of Hormuz. Although additional conditions remain to be met before a final agreement, any changes to this strategic waterway are enough to rattle global energy and safe-haven asset markets.
From a technical perspective, gold prices have accumulated a substantial rebound since hitting a phase low of $3,942 in June. The market is currently testing the descending trendline resistance near $4,460, which, together with the 200-day moving average around $4,495, forms a dense resistance zone. Market consensus generally holds that the $4,460 to $4,500 range will pose a short-term test for bullish advances. However, once prices effectively hold and break through this area, it will directly open up the technical space for a push toward the psychological $5,000 mark.
