A senior analyst who issued warnings prior to the global financial crisis notes that as the economic boost from the World Cup fades, the US economy will face a critical moment of reckoning in the fourth quarter. Although the annualized growth rate for the second quarter unexpectedly reached 4%, this is viewed as a one-off effect. Current economic momentum is shifting, and the lingering impact of fiscal stimulus is waning.

Financial conditions for US consumers are currently showing signs of stress. Real-time data indicates that consumer spending growth has slowed from previous peaks. This metric reflects actual spending willingness rather than revolving debt. Meanwhile, rising gasoline prices continue to erode disposable income. Although overall inflation data appears to be cooling, increasing energy costs are exerting significant pressure on low-to-middle-income households.

Given this economic performance, the market widely expects the Federal Reserve to maintain current interest rate levels in its latest decision. While some argue that a surprise rate hike would bolster policy credibility, analysis suggests that the Fed Chair's establishment of multiple policy working groups has effectively bought policymakers more time to observe, eliminating the need for a hasty pivot. The committee is expected to continue using hawkish rhetoric to preserve flexibility for future actions, preferring to wait and ensure accurate assessment.

Regarding long-term interest rates and the housing market, monetary policy is considered to have limited impact. The persistence of high long-term yields is fundamentally attributed to fiscal issues stemming from inadequate debt control. Regardless of monetary policy adjustments, this factor could keep interest rates elevated for an extended period. Market opinion on policy direction is currently divided; while some institutions fear inflation pressures may force a resumption of rate hikes, signals of shifting economic momentum and weak consumption are more critical. The new Fed Chair is dedicated to balancing inflation control with avoiding a hard economic landing. Policy may maintain a wait-and-see stance for a longer duration, managing market expectations through rhetoric rather than actual action.