A worrying signal has recently emerged in the US stock market. The疯狂 surge in the AI hardware sector contrasts sharply with the sluggish performance of tech giants making massive AI capital expenditures, a divergence reminiscent of market dynamics prior to the dot-com bubble burst. In its latest strategy report, JPMorgan points out that the current AI trade is experiencing significant fragmentation. On one side, chip and related hardware stocks continue to soar; on the other, investors are questioning whether huge AI investments can translate into actual returns, leading to sell-offs in some of the most aggressive large-cap tech companies.

Year-to-date, chip stocks have been the strongest performing sector in the AI rally. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has surged 87%, just setting its best quarterly performance on record, indicating heightened market focus on AI infrastructure construction. Beyond chips, other AI hardware-related companies are also performing strongly. Storage chip stocks have risen significantly, with related ETFs gaining up to 141% since their inception in April. However, contrasting with the hot行情 of AI hardware suppliers, some tech giants with the largest AI capital expenditures have cooled off noticeably. The US Magnificent Seven, which previously benefited greatly from the AI boom, have performed weakly this year, with related ETFs down 7% from their earlier peaks. Among them, Meta and Microsoft, two of the largest AI capital spenders, have fallen 5% and 18% respectively this year. Microsoft also recorded its worst monthly performance since 2000 in June.

This market divergence bears considerable similarity to the situation in 1999. At that time, communication equipment supplier stocks saw parabolic gains, while companies making heavy capital investments in related fields began to retreat from highs, followed by the bursting of the internet bubble in early 2000. The report analyzes that the current widening divergence and the clearly negative performance of hyperscale cloud vendor stocks recall those market dynamics. This pattern suggests the market needs to watch whether these stocks can stabilize this summer to reduce the risk of sentiment and positioning-driven corrections in the autumn.

Concerns over the scale of AI investment are heating up. According to company statements, the AI capital expenditures of Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet, the four biggest AI spending tech companies, are expected to reach $725 billion this year. Some forecasts even show that by the end of this decade, the AI capital expenditure scale of just these companies could exceed the GDP of major economies like Japan. This means the core contradiction of the AI rally is shifting from who can participate in the AI revolution to who can truly make money from AI investments. In the eyes of investors, chip, storage, and hardware companies selling shovels to the AI boom have clearer short-term profit logic. Meanwhile, tech giants continuously pouring huge capital into building data centers and computing infrastructure must prove these investments will ultimately bring sufficiently high returns. For the market, this warning does not mean the AI rally will necessarily crash immediately, but it reminds investors that the current AI trade is no longer a one-way street where all related stocks rise in sync. Once tech giants continue to fail to prove AI investment returns, the market may face more obvious sentiment reversal and positioning adjustment pressure in the autumn.