With the yen breaching the 162 handle, market attention has shifted from specific technical levels to deeper scrutiny of policy logic. Wall Street institutions and hedge funds widely believe the yen's current depreciation trend has entered a state of policy vacuum. Under current trading logic, technical defenses are deemed irrelevant, with the primary drivers being the widening US-Japan interest rate differential and concerns over Japan's fiscal outlook. Even if Japanese authorities intervene, the consensus remains that this is unlikely to reverse long-term structural weaknesses.

Market opinions on specific level forecasts vary significantly. Asset management firms such as T. Rowe Price and Mizuho Bank see support levels near 169 to 170 in extreme scenarios, while Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group's model projections suggest the exchange rate could fall to 180. Singapore-based hedge fund Blue Edge Capital proposed a more extreme bearish scenario, suggesting that if the Bank of Japan maintains the status quo of neither direct intervention nor aggressive rate hikes, the exchange rate could test the 180 to 205 range by the end of next year. Market options pricing also indicates an approximately 15% probability of falling to 180 within the next year.

The market generally perceives Japan's official policy response as severely lagging. Although the Bank of Japan raised the benchmark rate to 1% in June, reaching a high since 1995, the pace of tightening is still considered far behind the Federal Reserve, making shorting the yen an extremely attractive trade. Analysts point out that the Bank of Japan's decision-making body is in a state of deep stagnation. Regarding the 160 level previously set by officials, the market widely believes this red line has lost actual constraining power under structural selling pressure. Senior strategists state plainly that the current 162 level is merely evidence of structural pressure, not a ceiling.