President Trump signaled relative optimism to the media at the White House on Wednesday, asserting that US mine-sweeping operations in the Hormuz Strait have achieved substantial breakthroughs. He indicated that the majority of mine threats have been neutralized and that the critical global energy corridor would reopen immediately upon Iran signing a memorandum of understanding to end hostile actions. To mitigate potential residual risks, US officials hinted that vessels could take a southern alternative route along the Omani coast. Previously, some merchant ships had navigated discreetly by disabling transponders, securing US assistance when necessary.

However, messaging within the White House remains inconsistent. Secretary of State Rubio took a more cautious stance during testimony before the Senate on the same day, noting that Iran continues to lay mines extensively in the strait region and commercial vessels still face threats from attack drones. This divergence stems from recent frequent military frictions, including US strikes on Iranian oil tankers and communication infrastructure, alongside Iranian missile and drone retaliations against US bases. Despite ongoing hostilities, diplomatic channels remain open, with both parties discussing a four-stage memorandum of understanding. The framework encompasses ending multi-front military conflicts, establishing a passage mechanism for the strait, lifting partial sanctions, negotiating on nuclear programs, and forming a joint oversight committee.

The primary obstacle in the negotiation process centers on economic compensation. Tehran has called for $300 billion in investment support for post-war reconstruction, estimating damages from US and Israeli airstrikes to reach trillions of dollars. While recent developments suggest the agreement text may shift to a Gulf-led fund, permitting US firms to participate in future energy joint ventures to bypass direct US funding, Trump maintains a hardline position. He explicitly stated he will not sign any agreement perceived as compensating Iran, insisting instead on the destruction of Iran's underground buried enriched uranium. Concurrently, Iran has suspended dialogue via intermediaries and demanded Israel cease military operations in Lebanon and Gaza, threatening to fully blockade the Hormuz Strait and open new fronts otherwise. Under current circumstances, the US-Iran dynamic of simultaneous conflict and negotiation is expected to persist, leaving the trajectory of related energy markets highly uncertain.