Global energy markets have experienced significant volatility recently, with international crude oil prices dropping sharply for two consecutive trading days. On May 6, U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light sweet crude oil futures fell nearly 4% in a single day, breaking below the key psychological level of $100 per barrel; Brent crude futures were also under pressure, closing below $107. The market generally believes this pullback is mainly influenced by the convergence of geopolitical risk premiums, as investors harbor expectations for a potential agreement between the United States and Iran.
U.S. President Trump revealed via social media platforms that the U.S. side has achieved a major breakthrough in pushing for a comprehensive final agreement with Iran. Based on this progress, the U.S. announced a suspension of the Freedom Plan operation guiding merchant ships through the Strait of Hormuz led by the U.S. military, though emphasizing that maritime blockade measures against Iran will continue. This statement directly alleviated excessive market concerns over disruptions to shipping channels. Previously, since the end of February, affected by relevant military conflicts, Brent crude prices had surged from around $71.5 to high levels, an increase of over 50%.
Beyond diplomatic moves, military developments have also drawn attention. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio officially confirmed at the White House on May 5 that the military operation codenamed Epic Wrath has ended, having lasted 66 days since its launch on February 28. Although the U.S. declared the completion of phased tasks, regional tensions have not been completely settled. The Department of Defense stated that the ceasefire agreement effective in early April remains valid currently, while military leaders believe Iran's recent attack behaviors have not reached the standard for restarting large-scale combat operations and do not constitute a substantive violation of the agreement.
Currently, the Strait of Hormuz region remains under a dual blockade. On one hand, Iran restricts oil and gas flows; on the other, the U.S. intercepts traffic entering and leaving the Iranian coastline to cut off its crude exports. According to multiple data sources, affected by the blockade, the number of stranded merchant ships in the Persian Gulf exceeds 1,500, involving approximately 20,000 crew members. The International Maritime Organization has begun formulating an evacuation framework but pointed out that humanitarian evacuation will be difficult to implement smoothly unless conflicting parties agree to stop attacking maritime targets.
Regarding the prospect of follow-up negotiations, positions on both sides remain divergent. The U.S. side claims dialogue in the past 24 hours was productive, and Iran has agreed not to possess nuclear weapons, making a deal more likely. However, Tehran's response was relatively firm. The Iranian President believes the U.S. logic of demanding submission while applying maximum pressure does not hold, and the Supreme Leader's Foreign Affairs Advisor explicitly stated that the two countries are still in a state of war and will continue to resist. Analysts believe that although geopolitical risk pricing is adjusting, with unresolved core issue disagreements and ongoing shipping attacks, oil market fluctuations may be difficult to fully calm in the short term.
