Recent developments in the Middle East have shown subtle shifts in tension levels. Reports suggest that Iran is conveying a new reconciliation proposal to the United States through Pakistan. The core of this plan involves reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the current state of war, while the highly anticipated nuclear negotiations are proposed to be postponed to a subsequent phase. Following the release of this diplomatic move, sentiment in the international crude oil market, previously supported by geopolitical risk premiums, has moderated. Although Brent crude and NY futures prices maintained an upward trajectory, the gains narrowed significantly, closing around $106.85 and $95.72 respectively, with single-day increases controlled near 1.4%.
To implement this regional coordination plan, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi undertook an intensive diplomatic itinerary. During his visit to Islamabad, Pakistan, he consulted with local senior officials on new pathways to bypass the current nuclear stalemate. He subsequently made a brief stop in Oman before arriving in Moscow recently to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin. According to relevant channels, Araghchi’s primary mission on this trip was not to directly push for the signing of a nuclear agreement, but to explain Tehran’s specific conditions for halting military operations and alleviating maritime blockades to regional partners and Moscow. Iranian official media also disclosed that Tehran has delineated red lines concerning nuclear issues and strait navigation to the US in written form.
Although the Pakistani side has forwarded Iran’s suggestions to the White House, Washington’s attitude remains unclear at present. US President Trump expressed a harder line in recent public appearances, insisting on continuing the maritime blockade to force Iran into submission. Trump claimed during an interview that due to export blockages preventing oil shipments, Iran’s domestic pipeline systems might experience internal explosions due to mechanical pressure within the coming weeks, even predicting that relevant facilities could face collapse risks within three days. Further analysis suggests that with land-based storage tank space nearing saturation, the timing for forced closures of Iranian oilfields may be brought forward.
Affected by these factors, the scheduled visit by the US Middle East Special Envoy and senior advisors to Pakistan has been cancelled. The US administration stated on social media platforms that while Iran provided certain conditions, they have not yet met requirements, and noted that if there is genuine intent to negotiate, direct communication should take place. Meanwhile, the Iranian Ambassador to Russia confirmed that Araghchi has submitted a report to the Russian side regarding negotiations to end the war between the US and Israel. Despite continuous mediation from all parties, Iran reiterated that bilateral direct dialogue with the US will not commence until the maritime blockade on ports is lifted by the US. It is reported that US President Trump is expected to hold a meeting on Monday with senior teams on national security and foreign policy to discuss the current deadlock in negotiations with Iran and possible actions for the next steps of the war.
