International crude oil markets demonstrated robust performance during Monday trading, with major futures contracts generally rising by approximately three percentage points. This reflects investors' deep concern over intensifying geopolitical risks. Following announcements that Yemen's Houthi forces launched missiles at southern Israel, the focal point of the conflict shifted from the Persian Gulf toward the Red Sea, signaling a clear expansion of warfare in the region. By the closing bell, May Brent crude futures climbed to $115.95 per barrel, while the New York May crude contract also registered a near 3% gain, reaching $102.59 per barrel.

The incident marks the formal entry of Iran-backed resistance groups into the conflict. While the Israeli military stated they successfully intercepted the threats without casualties, the Houthi action disrupted the prior strategic balance. Analysts note that if the group proceeds to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the global energy supply chain faces dual blockade risks from both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb. Handling massive daily oil trade volumes, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a critical artery connecting the Atlantic, Mediterranean, and Indian Oceans, where its stability directly dictates the security of global oil and gas supplies.

On the macroeconomic front, prolonged conflict dynamics could yield far-reaching consequences. Market observers suggest that if hostilities do not subside soon, soaring energy costs will sustain upward pressure on inflation, compelling major central banks to extend periods of tight monetary policy. Such a deteriorating macro environment will weigh on various risk assets and potentially heighten the likelihood of a global economic recession. Currently, the pricing logic in capital markets is shifting subtly, moving from assessing short-term logistics disruptions to evaluating long-term supply shocks. This transition may emerge as a key variable driving future global asset price repricing.