Affected by the continuous heavy decline in international oil prices, Hong Kong oil stocks have been sluggish in recent days and are accelerating their decline today.
As of press time, the decline of "three barrels of oil" ranks first, with PetroChina (00857. HK) falling more than 3%, Sinopec (00386. HK) falling nearly 3%, CNOOC (00883. HK) falling more than 2%, and Shanghai Petrochemical (00338. HK) and Kunlun Energy (00135. HK) following suit.
On the news front, despite recent tensions in the Middle East, Israel's latest retaliatory strike against Iran has bypassed oil and nuclear facilities, causing the risk premium in the international crude oil market to quickly dissipate.
What worries the market is that the short-term oil price decline rate is relatively high. This week, with only two trading days, WTI and Brent crude oil futures have both experienced a cumulative decline of over 6%, indicating a sudden increase in the risk of breaking levels at the trading level.
It is worth mentioning that in the medium to long term, the market's expectations for oil prices are also very negative.
Due to the diminishing risk premium driven by geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Citigroup has lowered its forecast for Brent oil prices for the next 12 months to $60 per barrel.
Earlier this month, OPEC released its monthly report data showing that global crude oil demand is expected to grow at 1.93 million barrels per day in 2024, compared to the previous expectation of 2.03 million barrels per day. The IEA predicts that the global oil demand growth rate will slow down from the previous 903000 barrels per day to 862000 barrels per day this year, partly due to the pressure on the global outlook caused by the slowdown in Chinese consumption.
According to a report by Dong Dandan, a futures analyst at CITIC Securities, as of the week ending October 18th, total US oil inventories had accumulated for the first time after a four week consecutive decline, indicating a decline in demand.
At the same time, market analysis suggests that as the US presidential election approaches, policy direction will directly affect the energy market, and currently the market is mainly waiting for new information to provide direction guidance. Overall, the market drive is limited and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment.
