Despite seemingly less pressure to meet the official growth target, Beijing will likely still be compelled to introduce a package of stimulus measures, especially on the fiscal side, Nomura analysts say in a note.
Data for 3Q was better than expected, but due to challenges like a huge fiscal revenue gap, fading export momentum, persistent deflation pressures and downward property sector spirals, more policy support is likely, they say.
As much of the incoming fiscal stimulus will likely be used to fill the fiscal gap faced by local governments, Nomura keeps its 4Q GDP growth forecast at 4.4%.
"That said, with the upside surprise in 3Q GDP, we make a mark-to-market revision to raise our 2024 annual GDP growth forecast to 4.7% from 4.6%."
China Data Unlikely to Slow Fiscal Stimulus Plan
SearchFx
2024-10-18 18:02:20
Description:Data for 3Q was better than expected, but due to challenges like a huge fiscal revenue gap, fading export momentum, persistent deflation pressures and downward property sector spirals, more policy support is likely, they say.
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