China International Capital Corporation: Has A-shares seen a big bottom?
  financefeeds 2024-09-30 15:22:33
Description:China International Capital Corporation (CICC) released a research report stating that A-shares have rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 recording their largest weekly gains since 2008. In the past 20 years, the A-share m

China International Capital Corporation (CICC) released a research report stating that A-shares have rebounded strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300 recording their largest weekly gains since 2008. In the past 20 years, the A-share market has emerged from the "bottom" and can be basically divided into two situations: 1) the trend of fundamentals has stabilized. 2) Policies and reforms are intensifying to improve expectations, and funds are driving the stock market upward. It is expected that there may still be some funds waiting to be added to the market during the rapid rise in this round, and these funds may become potential bulls in the market. The market is expected to remain active in the coming months and needs to pay more attention to structural opportunities. China International Capital Corporation (CICC) believes that the key to the market coming out of the "bottom" lies in the confirmation of medium-term fundamental signals. Recently, the current focus on stabilizing growth policies, especially the monetary policy, has been strengthened first.

 Whether the subsequent fiscal policy can follow suit may affect the upward pace and space of the stock market.


The main views of CICC are as follows:


After the rapid formation of a temporary bottom, investors are more concerned about whether the current situation is a historic "big bottom"


How to determine if the A-share market has bottomed out? The line divides the bottom signals into two categories: necessary signals and auxiliary signals: 1) necessary signals: including fundamental signals and policy signals. Policy signals are generally strong and need to exceed the expectations of investors at the time. Historically, this has been a necessary condition for the stabilization and rebound of A-shares, and the temporary bottom of A-shares often synchronizes or lags behind policy signals. Fundamental signals reflect China's economic conditions and the operating environment of listed companies. The emergence of fundamental signals often helps to drive the stock market from rebound to reversal. Although fundamental signals often lag behind the market bottom, they are an important condition for investors' confidence to stabilize in a trend. From the logical relationship between the two signals, fundamental signals are closely related to policy responses, and economic cycles are often accompanied by countercyclical policy adjustments.


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