The foundation for the global economic recovery in 2024 is still relatively fragile overall.

The world is currently in a major upheaval that has not been seen in a century. It can be seen that the world economy still faces many uncertainties in 2024. For example, geopolitical, economic, and global security tensions are likely to continue to intensify; Although global inflation is decreasing, it is still at a high level and there is a possibility of a rebound; The global debt crisis is escalating rapidly; The risk of decoupling and chain breakage in the industrial and supply chains still exists. In addition, risks in areas such as monetary policy, food, energy and commodities, and ecological environment are accelerating to gather.

Specifically, the four major challenges that currently affect the evolution of the world pattern deserve attention. One is how to evaluate and face economic globalization. Is it opening up a new process of globalization? Or let globalization be deconstructed, dismembered, and fragmented? The second is how to face the changes and evolution of international order, international rules, and international institutions. The third is how to deal with the pan politicization, pan security, and pan conceptualization of some countries. The fourth is how to face the challenges brought to humanity by the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation.

The strategic risk period and strategic game period exacerbate the uncertainty, instability, and imbalance of the world. For example, the historic monetary tightening cycle in the United States may come to an end, and the world needs to be vigilant about when US monetary policy will turn loose this year and whether it will cause another surge in liquidity. The debt crisis and financial risks in the United States have led more and more countries to question the creditworthiness of the US dollar. At present, the total amount of US treasury bond has exceeded 34 trillion US dollars. According to the budget outlook of the Congressional Budget Office, the size of the US treasury bond will nearly double in the next 30 years. Dedollarization may become a future development trend, and the world monetary system may undergo significant changes.

There are several characteristics that need attention. Firstly, while the overall global economic growth rate slows down in 2024, China remains the primary driving force for global economic development. According to predictions from institutions such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the Chinese economy contributes about 30% to the world economy, and remains the primary driving force behind global economic growth. China's position and influence in global economic growth have not changed. Secondly, there has been a historic change in the position of some countries in global economic growth. Especially outstanding is that in 2023, Germany surpassed Japan to become the world's third-largest economy. Among the BRICS countries, China, India, and Russia have entered the world's top ten in terms of economic size, which is also a prominent point in the structural changes in the balance of power between the North, South, East, and West. The growth rate of developed economies is expected to continue to slow down in 2024. Thirdly, there is further differentiation in global economic growth, and emerging economies remain the fastest-growing economies in the world economy. Fourthly, due to the impact of the Ukraine crisis and the siphon effect of policies such as the US Inflation Reduction Act, the overall economic growth of the eurozone is relatively poor.

After 45 years of reform and opening up, China has undergone several significant turning points. One is that China has developed into a beneficiary, builder, and contributor to maintaining economic globalization. Secondly, China is constantly shifting upwards in the industrial and supply chains. Thirdly, China has developed from its previous comparative advantage in labor force to the present, forming a latecomer advantage and a comprehensive advantage.

In the face of a turbulent and intertwined world, we need to promote China's institutional opening up, implement high-level opening-up to the outside world, enhance our ability to control risks in opening up, and ensure the stability and smoothness of the global industrial and supply chains.

The most urgent task at present is to accelerate the reform in the following areas. One is to establish a fair market competition system. The second is to strengthen the docking of international standards. The third is to establish a subsidy mechanism that conforms to international practices as soon as possible. The fourth is to promote the establishment of global governance rules in areas such as 5G, artificial intelligence, digital economy, and e-commerce. In addition, it is necessary to establish institutional mechanisms and arrangements that are suitable for the allocation of market resources in the international market.