Due to factors such as retirement, multiple officials have been replaced and reappointed within the Federal Reserve since 2023. At present, the FOMC is composed of 12 members, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson, Michael Barr, Federal Reserve Directors Christopher Waller, Lisa Cook, Adriana Kugler, Michelle Bowman, and New York Fed Chairman John Williams as fixed voting members. The remaining 4 seats are replaced annually by 11 local Fed chairpersons.

This year, Chicago Fed Chairman Austan Goolsbee, Philadelphia Fed Chairman Patrick Harker, Minneapolis Fed Chairman Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed Chairman Lorie Logan will be rotated out. At the same time, Cleveland Chairman Loretta Mester, Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Thomas Barkin, Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Raphael Bostic, and San Francisco Federal Reserve Chairman Mary Daly became the new voters.

Other officials are mainly wait-and-see, with San Francisco Fed Chairman Mary Daly speaking on the eve of the silence period, stating that the US economy and monetary policy are in a good state, and while reducing inflation is still ongoing, risks have become more balanced. "We can start to be more patient and see what needs to be done next. This requires patience and gradual progress." She emphasized that unlike last year's focus on fighting inflation, this year we need to focus more on another task of the Federal Reserve - achieving maximum employment.

The position of the fixed vote committee also tends to be wait-and-see. Federal Reserve No.3 figure and New York Fed Chairman Williams stated earlier this month that calling for a rate cut is not yet mature, as there is still some way to go to restore the inflation rate to the target of 2%. This important advisor to Powell also stated that it is necessary to maintain a restrictive policy stance for a period of time in order to fully achieve the goal. "Only when we are confident that the inflation rate is continuing to move towards 2%, is it appropriate to reduce the degree of policy restrictions." Williams believes that the economic outlook remains "highly uncertain," and decisions regarding monetary policy will be made based on overall data, constantly changing prospects, and risk balance.

The first legislator and Federal Reserve director to propose a rate cut, Waller, also changed his stance last week. "With good economic activity and labor market conditions, the inflation rate is gradually dropping to 2%, and I think there is no reason to act quickly like in the past." His statement directly hit the previous market's expectation of interest rate cuts.

Boris Schlossberg, macro strategist at BK asset management, stated in an interview with First Financial that compared to the interest rate hike cycle that began in March of the previous year, it is clear that the internal stance of the Federal Reserve is gradually softening.

He analyzed that from the latest distribution of members, the internal forces of FOMC are shifting towards balance, and some members who were originally biased towards hawks and pigeons are gradually leaning towards a neutral position. Schlossberg believes that the Federal Reserve may not change its cautious attitude until further changes occur in the inflation outlook, which also means that maintaining the status quo in the short term is still the best option.

Schr ö sberg told First Financial that investors are beginning to realize that the enthusiasm for interest rate cuts is too high and need to re price the path. He believes that the focus should be on the labor market, which will determine the speed and extent of interest rate cuts. It may be more appropriate to start easing at the end of the second or third quarter, and there can be more data to evaluate the speed of economic decline.

He reminded that the meeting minutes and recent discussions among Federal Reserve officials regarding balance sheet tightening suggest that this part of the content may be earlier than interest rate adjustments. With the rapid decline in the use of Overnight Reverse Repurchase (On RPP) mechanisms, there is indeed reason for review. This can avoid unexpected interest rate hikes in the financing market, just like the turbulence in the repurchase market in 2019.