The new year started with a bang in crypto markets as bitcoin reached a new 20-month high above $45,000 as traders’ focus remains on applications for ETFs. Other major CFD markets have been quieter so far in 2024 as participants await important news from the USA in the next few days.

This preview of weekly data looks at XAUUSD and EURUSD ahead of minutes from the Federal Reserve (‘the Fed’) and Friday’s American job report.

The end of 2023 was notable for monetary policy because the majority of expectations began to shift towards cuts by major central banks this year. While the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee has generally remained firm on no cuts for the foreseeable future, the European Central Bank (‘the ECB’) might cut around the end of the year and most participants expect the Fed to call for a single cut in March. The Fed’s minutes on Wednesday night GMT might give traders more clues on how rates could move at the end of the quarter.

Overall, it seems that a severe recession is now much less likely in the near future in most major countries compared to this time last year. No major economy is currently in recession based on GDP data. The countries with the largest GDPs in recession now are Saudi Arabia and the Netherlands.

This week’s most important regular release is the American job report including non-farm payrolls (‘the NFP’) on Friday afternoon GMT. The Canadian job report is at the same time while Germany’s job report for December is due on Wednesday morning. Traders are also looking ahead to preliminary/flash inflation from the eurozone and various constituent countries on Thursday and Friday.

Gold’s uptrend still seems to be active in the first days of trading in 2024. The overall fundamental situation seems to be fairly positive, with it seemingly likely that the Fed will start a cycle of easing policy this quarter and some recent support from tension in the Red Sea. The Fed’s minutes and Friday’s job report are likely to drive higher volatility but probably not a shift in the trend unless either or both are notably surprising.

On the chart, $2,100 is an obvious short- to medium-term resistance which might resist testing. The 20-day SMA around $2,035 might be a support in the next few days. An immediate move up doesn’t seem very favourable because of buying saturation based on the slow stochastic. The uptrend also seems to be mature. To capture a possible intraday move up, traders would probably look for a weaker than expected NFP or, less likely, confirmation from the Fed’s minutes that a sequence of cuts is coming this year.