US President Biden said that the non farm payroll report released last Friday showed that the US labor market still has resilience and inflation continues to ease, which is a "sweet spot" for the economy. He said this should not prompt the Federal Reserve to further raise interest rates. This marks a rare comment by Biden on the Federal Reserve's policy-making.
The US labor market unexpectedly strengthened in November, adding 199000 jobs, and wage growth eased the bet that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates early next year. Biden said last Friday that this should be seen as "solid and stable" growth.
He said in his speech in Las Vegas, Nevada that this number is a "sweet spot" needed for stable growth and reducing inflation, rather than encouraging the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Recent US presidents have avoided making routine comments on the Federal Reserve because they are concerned about weakening the central bank's traditional independence in formulating monetary policy and leaving the impression that decision-making is politically driven. However, Biden's predecessor Trump has repeatedly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Powell for the Fed's policies. Trump nominated Powell to lead the Federal Reserve in 2017, and Powell took over the following year.
At the time of Biden's remarks, he is preparing for re-election, and the strength of the US economy will depend to some extent on his management of the US economy. Public opinion polls show that voters have a low evaluation of the US economy.
A latest poll by The Wall Street Journal shows that Biden's political status is at its weakest point during his presidency, with voters giving him the lowest score for his job performance, and Trump gaining more favor for the first time. In the hypothetical vote with only these two candidates, Biden (43%) is 4 percentage points behind Trump (47%). If five potential third-party and independent candidates are added, Trump's lead will expand to 6 percentage points, or 37% to 31%. They received a total support rate of 17%, with Robert Kennedy Jr., who transitioned from a Democrat to an independent candidate, receiving the highest support rate of 8%.
In the new survey, dissatisfaction with Biden is widespread, but most of it appears among Democratic leaning groups who may still support him on election day. Only 23% of voters said Biden's policies were personally helpful to them, while 53% of voters said they were hurt by the presidential agenda. By contrast, about half of the voters said that Trump's policies during his presidency were personally helpful to them, with over 37% of voters reporting being hurt.
Biden Economics is Biden's iconic economic manifesto, but less than 30% of voters agree with it, and more than half of voters oppose it. Two thirds of voters believe that the economic situation is poor or not good, and two-thirds of voters believe that the economic situation has worsened in the past two years of Biden's presidency. A broader pessimistic sign is that 48% of people say they do not believe that this generation will do better than the previous generation, while 44% say that this generation's situation will be better. As an important pillar of the Democratic Alliance, young voters seem to have significant economic anxiety. For example, less than one-third of voters under the age of 35 indicate good economic conditions, while among voters aged 65 and above, this proportion is 40%.
Democratic polling expert Bocian said that Biden's support rate is insufficient among several groups that have consistently voted for the Democratic Party - young voters, black voters, and Latinx voters. "They are feeling economic pressure and challenges now. They haven't shown the enthusiasm for voting in 2020 and 2022," he said. But he said that with one year left until the election, it is "completely feasible" to form a new Biden coalition.
One sign that pessimism may be fading is that 26% of people believe inflation is moving in the right direction, up from 20% in August polls. If this change continues, it will help boost Biden's reputation. Biden has been adjusting his information about the economy, focusing more on curbing inflation rather than creating employment. Creating high paying jobs is a core goal of legislation supported by the Democratic Party to fund new infrastructure and manufacturing, but in the eyes of voters, jobs are less worth paying attention to compared to high prices. The White House recently announced a new supply chain committee, partially aimed at curbing inflation, and Biden recently called on businesses to "stop inflating prices.".
