In the early hours of today, Brent crude oil marked a notable ascent, reaching $82.51 per barrel at 8:00 am UK time. The surge is attributed to market reactions in the lead-up to the eagerly anticipated OPEC+ meeting scheduled for November 26.

Throughout this week, the energy markets have witnessed a gradual uptick in oil prices, fueled by mounting anticipation surrounding the impending OPEC+ gathering. As the global industry braces for potential decisions, speculations are rife about the trajectory OPEC+ may choose.

All eyes are on oil powerhouses such as Saudi Arabia and Russia, with indications pointing toward a potential extension of supply reduction efforts into early 2024. Beyond individual actions, there’s growing speculation that the broader OPEC+ alliance could collectively consider scaling back supply. If Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the wider OPEC+ group align in favour of supply cuts, it could effectively eliminate the surplus projected for the first quarter of the coming year.

The speculative climate has translated into a gradual appreciation in the value of Brent crude oil. At the beginning of the week, the price hovered just above $81 per barrel, and over the past two days, it has witnessed an incremental rise of over $1.50.

This steady climb in prices may well be a precursor to more significant surges if the OPEC+ nations officially declare supply cuts during the upcoming meeting. Such announcements, confirming pre-meeting conjectures, can solidify market expectations and potentially propel prices even higher.

The oil market has experienced notable volatility over the past week. On November 16, prices dipped as low as $77.02 for contracts set to expire in January. Within six days, the market witnessed an impressive surge, with prices increasing by over $5 per barrel. This movement, remarkable in itself, takes place against the backdrop of a changed landscape since the days of high volatility linked to European customers settling in rubles, which are now over a year behind us. It also marks a departure from the high of $132 per barrel reached in April earlier this year.

As industry players await the OPEC+ decisions, the energy market remains on edge, with the potential for further price fluctuations and significant shifts based on the outcomes of the imminent meeting.