This preview of weekly data looks at EURUSD and XAUUSD where economic data coming up later this week are the main drivers in the markets for the near short term outlook. 

RBA interest rate decision at 03:30 AM GMT. The market consensus is that the central bank will proceed with a single hike and push interest rates to 4.35%. If this is confirmed then the Aussie dollar might find some support against other major currencies that it is traded against. 

Wednesday: 

Fed chair Powell Speech at 02:15 PM GMT. The Federal Reserve is hosting a conference on November 8, 2023, to celebrate the centennial of the Division of Research and Statistics. The conference on November 8 will focus on the past, present, and future of the division. Market participants will be monitoring the speech of J.Powell for any hints on the action plan for future developments of the monetary policy. 

Thursday:

Chinese inflation rate at 01:30 AM GMT is expected to decline to reach negative figures of -0.1%. This means deflation in the Chinese economy where supply seems to be higher than actual demand in October. 

Friday:

Preliminary British GDP growth at 07:00 AM GMT is expected to decline to 0.5% on a year over year basis while the quarterly figure is expected to go down to -0.1% against the previous 0.2%. If these are broadly accurate then the quid might incur some minor losses against its pairs at least in the short term. 

EURUSD, daily

Major global currencies, including the dollar, euro, sterling, and yen, were steady on Monday as investors anticipated further declines in the dollar following the Federal Reserve’s less hawkish stance. The dollar index slipped and hit a six-week low after declining more than 1% last week. Weaker U.S. jobs data, softer manufacturing numbers, and a decline in Treasury yields also contributed to the dollar’s weakness, while some analysts expect the dollar to remain on a weaker trend, others caution that USD – supportive factors could eventually re-emerge. Additionally, signs of improvement in the eurozone, China, and other regions are necessary for a sustained dollar selloff. Treasury yields dropped last week, and futures markets imply a high probability that the Fed is done hiking rates at least for 2023. 

On the technical side the price is trading near a major resistance area of $1.075 which consists of the 38.2% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement level, the 100 day moving average as well as the psychological resistance of the round number. At the same time the Stochastic oscillator is in the extreme overbought levels possibly indicating that a correction to the downside might be imminent. If these factors prove to have a significant effect on the price and manage to push it down in the coming sessions then the first area of major technical support might be found around the $1.06 price area which is made up of the psychological support of the round number, the cross of the 20 and 50 day moving averages as well as the 23.6% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement level.

Gold prices slipped on Monday due to a slight increase in U.S. bond yields and anticipation of a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The movement of U.S. 10-year Treasury yields will likely impact gold in the near-term while the recent U.S. jobs report, which showed slower job growth and minimal wage increases, has led to expectations of no rate hikes in December and a potential easing in May. According to the Fedwatch tool , at the time of this report being written, the possibilities of a rate cut are for the meeting in May with 45.5% anticipation of a 0.25% cut against a 36.6% of keeping the rates at its current level of 5.5%. Powell’s speech on November 9th will provide more clarity on the interest rate outlook.

From the technical point of view gold prices have managed to keep above $1,970 for the past two consecutive weeks since the support of the 23.6% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement proved to be strong. This level is still valid with the 20 day moving average reinforcing the psychological support of the round number at $1,970 for now. If the price manages to make a valid break below the $1,970 level then the first area of possible support might be found around the $1,900 – $1,920 price area which consists of the psychological support of the round number, the 38.2% of the weekly Fibonacci retracement level, the lower band of the Bollinger bands as well as the dynamic support area between the 50 and 100 day moving averages.