Local time on October 31 (Tuesday), due to the approach of the Federal Reserve's November interest rate meeting resolution, the market sentiment tends to be cautious, and the three major indexes of the US stock market showed a narrow trading trend in the morning, but then the bulls began to occupy the top.
By the end of the day, the Dow was up 123.91 points, or 0.38%, at 33,052.87. The NASDAQ rose 61.76 points, or 0.48%, to 12,851.24. The S&P 500 rose 26.98 points, or 0.65 percent, to 4193.80.
Most Chinese stocks fell, with the Nasdaq Gold Dragon index down 1.7%. Among the hot stocks, Ideal Automobile, iQiyi, Bilibili fell more than 3%, Xiaopeng Automobile, Nio Automobile fell more than 2%.
For the whole month of October, the Dow fell 1.36%, the S&P 500 fell 2.2%, and the Nasdaq fell 2.78%, all for three consecutive months of declines, of which the Dow and the S&P Index hit the longest monthly losing record since March 2020.
Analysts believe that this round of declines in US stocks is the result of multiple factors, including continued selling pressure on US Treasury bonds, geopolitics and poor quarterly financial results of some heavyweight technology stocks. For the US stock market, there are large differences in market views.
John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer, believes the three-month long adjustment period is coming to an end.
In a research note released Monday, Stoltzfus wrote that valuations have fallen sharply across sectors after three straight months of declines, and that 'resilience' remains the key word in the U.S. economy. As a result, he remains optimistic about the outlook for U.S. stocks, while believing that fixed income assets are highly complementary in terms of diversification.
Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist Wilson recently said that the market for a short-term rebound in the U.S. stock market hopes may be disappointed. "The chances of a fourth-quarter rebound have fallen sharply." Wilson said deteriorating breadth indicators, downward revisions to earnings and falling consumer and business confidence all point to a deeper pullback.
He added that even if the U.S. economy does well, investor profit expectations for companies in the fourth quarter and 2024 are too high. Monetary and fiscal policy are unlikely to ease the pressure on outflows, while breadth indicators are weak, reflecting that most companies' earnings remain at further downside risk.
In economic data, U.S. consumer confidence fell to a five-month low in October, weighed down by a gloomy outlook for business conditions and concerns about high inflation.
The Conference Board released data on the 31st that the US consumer confidence index fell to 102.6 in October from the previous revised 104.3.
The present situation index, based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell to 143.1 from 146.2 last month, the lowest in nearly a year. The expectations index, based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions, fell to 75.6 from 76.4 last month.
"Rising prices, particularly for groceries and gasoline, remain a major concern for consumers, and respondents also expressed concerns about geopolitical developments and rising interest rates," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board.
The Chicago chapter of the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released data on the same day showed that the Chicago purchasing managers index (PMI) in October was 44, and the expectation was 45, compared with the previous value of 44.1.
In terms of individual stocks, Tesla closed up 1.76%, having lost 19.7% in October. A federal jury in California has ruled that Tesla's Autopilot self-driving assistance system did not have a manufacturing defect in a 2019 accident.
Caterpillar fell 6.65 percent after beating third-quarter earnings estimates, but said it expects fourth-quarter earnings to be only "slightly better" than year-ago levels.
In terms of commodities, with the easing of geopolitical tensions and the withdrawal of risk premiums, international oil prices continued to fall on the 31st. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for December delivery fell $1.29, or 1.6 percent, to $81.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest close since Aug. 28. In terms of the most active contract, WTI crude oil futures have lost about 10.8% in October.
New York gold fell from its 31-day high on profit-taking by bulls. Gold futures for December delivery fell 0.6 per cent to settle at $1,994.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Still, gold futures in New York are up nearly 6.9 per cent in October, based on the most active contract.