Domestic power battery shipments will continue to grow, but the growth rate will slow down. At the annual meeting of Gaogong Lithium Battery on November 14, Zhang Xiaofei, chairman of Gaogong Lithium Battery, predicted that the growth rate of domestic power battery shipments in 2022 will drop from 183% in 2021 to 117%, and it will further decline from 2023 to 2025.

After the continuous expansion of production capacity, power battery manufacturers need to find another way out, and "going to sea" has gradually become an industry trend. In order to better meet customer needs, battery companies are choosing to build factories overseas, and it is also considered a good path for the China-Europe train to transport power batteries to the sea.

Talking about the prosperity of the lithium battery industry next year, Liang Rui, vice president of Xinwang Da, is more optimistic. He predicts that the combined shipments of power batteries and energy storage batteries will double next year. Based on the shipments of lithium batteries of about 600GWh this year, shipments will exceed 1TWh next year. At the same time, he also raised his expectations for shipments in 2025: "Originally, we forecast that the demand for power batteries in 2025 will reach 1.2TWh to 1.4TWh, and energy storage will be about 600GWh, adding up to 2TWh." It's probably a little better to look at the trend now." Liang Rui said.

He said the optimistic forecast was based on three basic judgments: that global action on climate change would be more aggressive based on signals from recent international meetings; China has established the leading position in the power battery industry, and Chinese enterprises have been recognized and ordered by more and more international customers; A lot of battery capacity invested in the past year or two will be released.

Compared with Liang Rui's optimism, Cao Hui, chairman of Rui Pu Lanjun Energy, is cautious. "I think the growth rate of power batteries next year will be 30% to 40%, and energy storage will be 80% to 100%." The high growth rate of energy storage is mainly due to a relatively low base in the first half of this year." Cao Hui said that the national sales of new energy vehicles this year is expected to be 6 million, so it is more realistic to forecast sales of 8 million to 9 million next year.

Zhang Xiaofei, chairman of Gaogong Lithium, also mentioned the negative impact of rising raw material prices and declining industry profits, and revealed concerns. He also mentioned that after the increase in the base, the growth rate of the industry will not necessarily look so "wonderful".

Driven by customer demand, battery factories are considering going to sea; At the same time, driven by the battery factory going to sea, the relevant industrial chain must also consider going to sea.

"Now to build a factory in Europe, to meet customer demand, is' forced '." Liang Rui said at the forum that there are many challenges in building factories in Europe: on the one hand, China's supply chain is more perfect than that of Europe, and there is no good supply chain in Europe, which needs to be rebuilt; On the other hand, production costs are higher in Europe, and regulations on green manufacturing also need to be carefully studied.

Lu Miao, vice-chairman of Li Yuanheng, said the company would spend more in the US than in Europe. "The local decision-making process in the US is faster, and the policies and environment are more favorable to me personally." She believes that global equipment cannot be separated from China, so she still wants to expand the market in the United States.

Cao Hui chose a place "not in Europe or America." "We will have a relatively large sea movement next year, but it should not be in Europe and the United States." Customers don't necessarily want to build factories locally, so you can pick a place where you can make the most money, and that doesn't have to be in their local area." He said that if the import tariff is 20 percent, the cost of local construction is 50 percent higher, then it is more appropriate to choose other low-price areas to build factories.

In addition, Liang Rui also called for the use of China-Europe freight trains to help domestic power batteries go to sea. "When docking with industry associations and governments, I often say that I hope to solve the problem of power batteries for China-Europe railway trains. If we solve this problem, it will be most appropriate for us to build battery plants in southwest and northwest China, where there are green power resources." Liang Rui said.

Source: Shanghai Securities News