News that AI startup Anthropic may launch an initial public offering with a staggering valuation of up to $2 trillion has drawn widespread market attention. However, prominent research firm New Constructs has poured cold water on the prospect, labeling it the most egregious IPO of the year, with potential risks even surpassing the infamous WeWork debacle. According to the firm's analysis, the core rationale behind this capital extravaganza is not to reward secondary market investors, but rather to provide a liquidity exit for behind-the-scenes Wall Street capital to cash out.
New Constructs, which leveled this scathing critique, is renowned in the capital markets for its sharp tongue, yet its track record of predictions has not been flawless. Years ago, the firm flagged the eco-friendly footwear brand Allbirds and food delivery giant DoorDash as highly perilous IPOs. In reality, DoorDash not only posted stellar stock performance post-IPO, with its market capitalization surging from an initial $60 billion to $83 billion, but Allbirds, despite a massive post-IPO valuation shrinkage, was ultimately acquired for under $40 million and pivoted toward artificial intelligence. Addressing its past misjudgments, the firm's founder previously conceded that markets often do crazy things, yet they remain steadfast in their analytical framework.
Setting aside the firm's historical controversies, the tension between Anthropic's actual financial metrics and its astronomical valuation remains the focal point of market speculation. Although the official prospectus has yet to be filed, foreign media reports indicate that the company's annualized revenue run rate has grown sevenfold year-on-year to reach $65 billion, with expectations to breach the $100 billion mark within two years. In the view of New Constructs, even if such revenue growth is undeniably staggering, it falls entirely short of justifying the massive risk exposure embedded in a $2 trillion valuation.
Beyond financial scrutiny, the inherent unpredictability of the technology itself has been flagged as a major risk factor. Anthropic has repeatedly issued public warnings that the advancement of AI could pose catastrophic, even existential, threats to humanity, further amplifying investor concerns. As this AI darling edges closer to the public markets, industry-wide debates over funding frenzies and valuation bubbles have reached a boiling point. Confronted with such a steep entry ticket, market participants are carefully weighing whether this pricing strategy—which heavily discounts years of future growth expectations—is a premature reward for a technological revolution or merely a high-stakes game of musical chairs.
