The underlying investment logic of the global gold market is undergoing a profound transformation. Although the rise in nominal and real bond yields theoretically increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets, gold prices have not faced the downward pressure predicted by traditional models. Instead, they have shown a clear decoupling from interest rate trends. The core driver of this divergence lies in the fundamental shift in the demand structure of the official sector. Data shows that over the past two to three years, gold purchases by global central banks have exceeded more than double the total of the eleven years from 2010 to 2021. From the beginning of this century to the global financial crisis, central banks were net sellers of gold. Today, however, they have completely turned into net buyers, and their combined gold holdings have even surpassed U.S. Treasuries at current valuation levels. This continuous influx of massive funds, insensitive to yield fluctuations, has directly weakened the suppressing effect of the traditional interest rate framework on gold prices.

Accompanying the continuous gold buying by central banks is the quiet evolution of the global foreign exchange reserve landscape. The share of the U.S. dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has gradually fallen from a high of just over 70% at the turn of the century to the current range of 55% to 57%. However, this structural decline in share does not mean a complete collapse of international confidence in the dollar. In the absence of alternative assets of similar scale, the dollar's dominant position remains solid. The operations of central banks are more of a pragmatic choice to diversify reserve assets amid a complex interweaving of geopolitical and economic environments. Considering the broad base of gold buying by central banks in regions such as Asia and Latin America, coupled with the difficulty of calming geopolitical frictions in the short term, the strong buying from the official sector will remain the long-term underpinning of the precious metals market. Meanwhile, the expansion of retail and investment channels such as gold ETFs has further consolidated the buying base for gold.

Faced with rising bond yields, the market needs to re-examine the macroeconomic logic behind them. The increasingly prominent fiscal dominance in developed economies has strengthened the constraint of fiscal policy on monetary policy. More importantly, the global economy is bidding farewell to the era of abundant cheap capital in the post-crisis period. The real economy sectors such as AI infrastructure, manufacturing reshoring, and green energy transition are creating a large amount of more productive capital demand, making capital scarce again. This reasonable increase in financing costs, while putting pressure on inefficient enterprises to clear out, will help improve total factor productivity in the long run. Therefore, the rise in yields does not constitute an absolute bearish signal for assets like gold. This wave of capital revaluation has also swept the commodity market. The recent strong performance of currencies related to major resource countries confirms the increased weight of commodities in the global pricing system. Copper, in particular, not only serves as a barometer for the traditional industrial cycle but also incorporates the incremental demand from AI computing infrastructure and new energy transition.

At a time when energy security is deeply bound to economic security, the vulnerability of global supply chains is prompting countries to accelerate the diversification of energy sources. The vigorous development of the electric vehicle and battery industries indicates that the pace of green transition has not slowed down this year, but has further accelerated, providing long-term demand support for refined oil and upstream raw materials. Facing such a complex and volatile macroeconomic landscape, the response strategies of capital markets are also iterating. Over the past few months, simple risk-on or risk-off sentiment can no longer adapt to the current market ecology. Capital flows clearly show a barbell-shaped allocation feature. On one end, investors continue to embrace U.S. stocks and global tech stocks to capture the growth dividends brought by AI; on the other end, they heavily allocate high-quality, short-to-medium duration investment-grade fixed-income assets to lock in liquidity and defend against risks. Capital is finding a new balance point between growth participation and risk prevention.