Recently, as energy costs continue to climb and inflationary pressures resurface, the Federal Reserve's room to maintain accommodative policies has been significantly squeezed. Senior economists point out that the current macroeconomic environment closely resembles the period preceding the major stock market plunge in the late 1980s. Back then, following the first rate hike, concerns over subsequent tightening measures directly triggered a massive asset sell-off. Today, if the Fed resumes rate hikes, the financial system could face incalculable pressure, potentially even triggering large-scale forced liquidations.

Currently, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note is steadily approaching the 5% psychological mark, with markets even fearing it could push further up to 5.3%. The persistent rise in long-end rates not only signifies a significant increase in borrowing costs across the economy but also directly undermines the allocation value of risk assets. The current high valuations in the US stock market rely heavily on strong expectations for AI-related capital expenditures. However, a higher baseline for interest rates will substantially raise the financing threshold for corporations, thereby shaking the core investment logic supporting the growth of the tech sector. Once long-end rates spiral out of control, tech stocks, which are highly dependent on the discounting of future earnings, will face severe valuation repricing pressures.

In response to the surge in long-end rates, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other policymakers are attempting to take measures to curb it, aiming to prevent excessively high borrowing costs from dampening the current tech investment boom. However, beyond the endogenous risks brought by monetary policy, external geopolitical factors are also accumulating. Disruptions in the global energy supply chain and tense situations in the Middle East continue to provide support for crude oil prices. Furthermore, uncertainties remain in the Sino-US tech rivalry. If the US introduces new restrictions on AI models and other areas, it could provoke countermeasures targeting critical minerals and supply chains. This would severely impact the relevant industrial chains and further suppress market risk appetite.