The U.S. economy added 162,000 nonfarm payrolls in August, significantly beating the market's previous expectation of 55,000, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%. This better-than-expected jobs report directly fueled market bets on the Federal Reserve continuing to tighten monetary policy in September, with traders now pricing in roughly a 60% probability of a rate hike for the month. Facing the upcoming rate decision, UBS has outlined the core investment themes in the current macroeconomic environment.

In terms of equity assets, UBS remains optimistic about the stock market. The bank believes that rate hikes driven by strong economic fundamentals typically have a lesser impact on capital markets compared to forced tightening measures necessitated by runaway inflation. Even if rising rate hike expectations may trigger short-term market pullbacks, this actually provides investors with an excellent opportunity to accumulate positions on dips. The ongoing improvement in corporate earnings, coupled with massive investment demand in artificial intelligence infrastructure, power grids, and resource sectors, provides solid support for equities.

In the fixed-income space, UBS has shifted its allocation focus to medium- and long-term government bonds. As market expectations for the interest rate path continue to be revised upward, the yield advantage of short- and medium-term bonds is being eroded, making the appeal of locking in these maturities inferior to simply holding cash. Conversely, the recent rise in long-end yields has significantly improved the risk-return profile of long-duration bonds, offering investors not only more attractive return potential but also excellent risk diversification within their portfolios.

Beyond the two main themes of equities and bonds, UBS continues to emphasize the hedging value of gold in asset allocation. Although rising real interest rates and a strong U.S. dollar may weigh on gold prices in the short term, global geopolitical tensions, fiscal vulnerabilities, and the uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook continue to consolidate its safe-haven status. Additionally, should signs of an inflation rebound emerge in the future or energy supply chains face disruptions, commodities can also serve as a vital tool for portfolio diversification.