As August begins, the six-month-old narrative of a memory chip super cycle has cooled for the first time, with multiple brokerages recently cutting their 2027 profit forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix for the first time. According to FnGuide, as of August 18, the consensus forecast for Samsung Electronics' 2027 operating profit fell to 544.67 trillion won, a decrease of about 5.2 trillion won from the end of last month. Meanwhile, SK hynix's forecast for the same period was slightly lowered from 402 trillion won to 399 trillion won.

Looking back at the first seven months of this year, driven by the continuous surge in prices of HBM, DDR5, and enterprise SSDs, the market's long-term profit expectations for these two giants experienced rapid expansion. At the beginning of the year, the 2027 profit forecasts for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix were only around 94 trillion and 89 trillion won, respectively, surging to more than five times their original levels in just half a year. This downward revision is viewed by the market more as a rational correction following the excessively rapid upward revisions earlier, rather than a signal of a reversal in industry prosperity.

The direct reason prompting brokerages to adjust their expectations lies in the previously overly optimistic assumptions about free cash flow, while challenges in actual operations are gradually emerging. Rising costs from the shift of capacity to advanced nodes, yield losses in HBM production, and increased bargaining pressure from customers have collectively weakened the optimistic narrative of straight-line profit growth.

Despite the pullback in long-term expectations, the storage demand driven by AI data centers has not been interrupted. Counterpoint estimates that the global memory market size will reach 150 trillion won this year and is expected to increase to 210 trillion won next year. Meanwhile, the shift of capacity towards HBM has led to a tightening supply of mature-node DRAMs such as DDR4 and SLC NAND. Morgan Stanley expects that price increases for these mature-node products could reach as high as 50% in the third quarter.

Industry insiders believe this is more like adjusting the slope of the profit growth curve from a straight-line surge to a stair-step ascent. The high prosperity of the memory industry remains intact, but the capital market has become more cautious about the valuation multiples it is willing to pay for long-term earnings.