The four-day lull in military tensions barely maintained between Tehran and Washington has officially ended. On Tuesday local time, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran launched several ballistic missiles at US forces stationed in the Middle East, specifically targeting a US base within Jordan. The US Central Command subsequently confirmed that all incoming missiles were successfully intercepted, resulting in no casualties or facility damage. Preliminary assessments indicate the number of launched missiles did not exceed four.
The timing of this attack is particularly delicate. Just last Friday, US President Trump ordered a suspension of military strikes against Iran that had lasted for thirteen nights, aiming to create space for diplomatic negotiations. At the time, US officials revealed that constructive dialogue was underway between the two parties. However, Iranian officials did not acknowledge that formal negotiations were taking place. Fragile contact maintained through intermediaries failed to translate into substantial progress, and this missile attack marks the formal collapse of the informal ceasefire.
The rapid escalation of geopolitical risks was immediately transmitted to the commodities market. During early trading in the Asian session on Wednesday, international crude oil prices rose significantly. Gains in Brent crude futures once exceeded 3%, breaking through the $86 per barrel threshold, while gains in WTI crude futures also expanded to 4%. In the three trading days prior, influenced by optimistic expectations regarding a US-Iran ceasefire, international oil prices had cumulatively fallen by over 14%, with New York oil prices even dipping below $80 at one point. This attack has caused the recently subsided geopolitical risk premium to be priced back into oil.
Market analysts believe this attack may force the White House to reassess its military strategy. Although Trump previously hinted that strong military action would resume if diplomatic efforts failed, media outlets have widely reported on the Pentagon's tight inventory of air defense ammunition. Meanwhile, tensions in the Red Sea region persist, with no sign of receding threats from Yemen's Houthi armed forces against Saudi ports. With both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, two major energy chokepoints, under pressure simultaneously, supply risks in the global crude oil market remain. Whether the US and Iran return to a tug-of-war involving both conflict and negotiations, or move towards more intense military confrontation, will become a key variable driving oil price trends in the short term.
