Despite experiencing a significant correction this year—even recording its weakest quarterly performance in over a decade—the core logic driving the long-term upward trend in gold remains unshaken. An international asset management firm recently revealed that it has formulated a plan to overweight gold again, though the timing for entry still requires careful consideration. The firm's multi-asset portfolio manager noted that the direction for strategic adjustment is clear; the key now lies in determining when to act.

Previously, gold prices surged to near the historical high of $5,600 per ounce before falling into adjustment. The firm had downgraded its gold allocation rating from overweight to neutral at the beginning of the year, a move that coincided with the temporary interruption of the gold bull market. Driven by shifts in the geopolitical landscape and profit-taking at high levels, gold prices have retreated from record highs, resulting in a short-term balance between bullish and bearish forces. From a tactical perspective, the bullish and bearish factors currently facing gold are roughly equivalent. It is expected that although gold prices may end the year slightly higher than current levels, a particularly strong directional trend is unlikely in the short term. Oil price volatility, Federal Reserve interest rate policy, and the recovery of market momentum will be the key variables affecting the next phase of trends.

Despite facing short-term adjustments, this has not altered the institution's judgment on the long-term prospects for gold. Unless there is a fundamental reversal in the global macro environment, such as governments returning to restrained fiscal policies and central banks effectively curbing inflation, long-term support for gold remains intact. Against the backdrop of high debt, loose fiscal policies, and continued concerns about currency credit, the attractiveness of gold as a store of value and risk hedge will not disappear. The institution expects gold to re-enter a bull phase around 2027.

Technically, gold prices may find support near $4,000 per ounce in the short term, but clear upside signals have not yet emerged. Market participants are focusing on two key indicators: first, the 50-day moving average crossing above the long-term moving average again, and second, gold prices trading above $4,300 per ounce. A breakout above this technical level would indicate that the market is beginning to accumulate upside pressure again. Until then, the institution may remain patient and not rush to restore overweight positions.

From a fundamental analysis perspective, continuous gold buying by central banks is regarded as the most important structural force supporting the medium-to-long-term rise in gold prices. In recent years, some central banks have continued to increase gold reserves to diversify foreign exchange asset risks and reduce reliance on a single reserve currency. When there are large-scale buyers with long-term strategic goals in the market, it is almost inevitable that gold prices will eventually be pushed higher. Before gold prices stabilize above key levels or technical indicators show clearer strengthening signals, the firm may continue to maintain a neutral allocation. Once upside momentum recovers, it stands ready to adjust gold back to an overweight state at any time.