Amid frequent maritime harassment attributed to Iran, major Middle Eastern oil producers are seeking to reduce their dependence on the Strait of Hormuz by expanding overland pipeline infrastructure. While seaborne crude exports from Gulf states continue to face geopolitical disruptions, industry observers note that merely increasing pipeline capacity may not fully eliminate potential threats to energy exports.
Infrastructure vulnerability remains a concern. Analysts point out that pipelines could also become targets for low-cost asymmetric attacks, a risk previously validated by incidents targeting tankers in the strait. This suggests that while pipelines can diversify export routes, they struggle to fundamentally resolve the uncertainty brought by geopolitical tensions.
Regarding specific projects, U.S. officials have disclosed support for Iraq to reconstruct a crude oil pipeline running from Kirkuk in the north, through Syria, to the Mediterranean, with relevant companies expected to participate in construction. For Iraq, disruptions to passage through the Strait of Hormuz have a particularly significant impact. As the second-largest producer in OPEC, its crude exports rely heavily on the southern Port of Basra, with limited alternative channels. Data indicates that due to regional conflict, Iraq's crude oil production has plummeted from 4.2 million barrels per day (bpd) before the conflict to 1.9 million bpd, a decline of over 50%.
Other countries are also actively expanding alternative routes. The UAE plans to double its export capacity outside the strait once the second pipeline to Fujairah Port on the Gulf of Oman is completed. Additionally, reports indicate that Saudi Arabia is considering expanding its pipeline capacity to the Red Sea by 2 million barrels per day.
According to estimates from research reports released by international investment banks, approximately seven pipelines in the Middle East are currently under construction or in the planning stage. By the end of 2028, pipeline transport capacity in the region is expected to exceed 14 million barrels per day, surpassing 60% of the total pre-conflict exports of the seven Gulf states. However, analysts in the energy sector believe these pipeline projects serve more as a geopolitical hedge against the risk of strait disruptions rather than a complete substitute. If regional conflicts continue to escalate, although crude export routes will become more diversified, the inherent vulnerability of the energy supply chain will not disappear.
