The gold market opened weak this week, with spot prices oscillating near the $4,000 level. Market analysts note that while short-term correction pressure exists, including a risk of falling below $3,900, the long-term bullish thesis remains intact. This dip may instead offer an entry point for long-term capital. The primary factor currently weighing on gold is not the US dollar, but volatility in international crude oil prices. Although geopolitical tensions show signs of easing, the situation in the Middle East remains unstable. Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have kept global crude inventories at consistently low levels. Tight energy supplies are expected to push Brent crude back into the $90 to $110 range. Even if shipping normalizes, inventory replenishment will take months, leaving open the possibility of oil prices approaching $100 in the near term.

Rising oil prices will reignite inflation expectations, forcing the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive monetary policy and prolong the high-interest-rate environment. This increases the opportunity cost of holding gold, continuing to pressure prices in the coming months. As of Monday, Brent crude had gained over 1%, holding above $73, while spot gold fell approximately 1.6% intraday, trading near $4,022. However, analysts remain optimistic about gold's trajectory over the next few years. Following this adjustment phase, gold prices are expected to resume their upward trend, potentially breaking through $5,300 before 2027. As economic shocks from geopolitical conflicts fade, US growth slows, and the Fed shifts its policy focus to employment, liquidity injection will become a key catalyst for higher gold prices.

Furthermore, the expanding US fiscal deficit and federal debt nearing $40 trillion will sustain investor concerns regarding currency depreciation and financial repression, supporting gold in scaling new record highs. The Fed may see more dovish members in the future, adopting a more flexible stance on inflation targets, and may even expand its balance sheet again to lower long-term financing costs. In this macro environment, real returns on US Treasuries may fail to fully offset inflation erosion. Gold, with its ability to hedge against inflation, will become a more attractive safe-haven asset than US Treasuries. Even if gold prices briefly fall below $3,900, this should be viewed as a buying opportunity for long-term investors rather than a signal that the bull market has ended.