As tensions in the Middle East ease significantly, panic within the global energy market triggered by supply disruptions is rapidly subsiding. On Wednesday, global benchmark oil prices fell sharply, dropping nearly 4 percent in a single day to return to pre-conflict levels. Confidence in supply chain stability is being restored as more tankers previously stranded depart the Strait of Hormuz.

At close, both Brent and WTI crude futures recorded significant declines, returning to the range above $70 per barrel. Market analysts indicate that positive signals from the Persian Gulf are the primary driver behind the drop. Optimistic expectations regarding the resumption of crude flow through the Strait of Hormuz are replacing previous concerns about supply cuts. Although vessel traffic has increased recently, overall volumes have not yet fully recovered to pre-war levels.

Data disclosed by U.S. energy authorities shows that approximately 20 million barrels of crude oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz to international markets within the past 24 hours. As tankers trapped for months resume navigation, market focus is shifting from supply disruption to supply surplus. According to global shipping data firms, since the relevant opening agreement was reached, at least 20 tankers previously stranded in the Persian Gulf have departed the strait, transporting a combined total of approximately 35 million barrels of crude. Most of these tankers had been stuck for over three months; following the outbreak of war, many non-Iranian tankers could not leave due to safety risks. Now, with the channel reopened, accumulated crude is accelerating towards international markets, with destinations concentrated mainly in Asia.

Currently, crude transport volume through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered to about 4.8 million barrels per day, hitting the highest level since the conflict escalated. Although still lower than the normal pre-war scale of about 15 million barrels, the recovery speed far exceeds market expectations. Meanwhile, Iranian crude exports have also rebounded significantly, with approximately 21 million barrels of Iranian crude shipped overseas via the strait in June alone. The extension of relevant sanctions waivers further bolstered market expectations for supply recovery. Statistics show that since the end of April, over 51 million barrels of crude have successfully left the Strait of Hormuz. Since some tankers turned off their Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) during navigation, the actual export scale may be higher than current statistics indicate.

As the security situation improves, the International Maritime Organization is also advancing the Persian Gulf seafarer evacuation plan. Currently, over 11,000 seafarers remain stranded in Persian Gulf waters. The relevant evacuation efforts have received support from Iran, Oman, the United States, and other Gulf states. This move signifies that the international shipping network, severely disrupted during the war, is gradually returning to normal operation. The Maritime Safety Information Center recently downgraded the ship safety risk level for the Strait of Hormuz from the previous highest level of Critical to Moderate, indicating that attack incidents remain possible but the probability has significantly decreased. Such a substantial adjustment in risk rating within just a few weeks is viewed by the market as an important sign of easing tensions in the Middle East.

For the energy market, the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz means the geopolitical risk premium that previously drove oil prices up is rapidly fading. In the past few months, the market worried that about one-fifth of global crude supply could be impacted by a closure of the strait. However, now, the concentrated release of inventory from trapped tankers, the recovery of Iranian exports, and declining shipping risks are pushing large volumes of crude back into the market. Investors focus is shifting from whether there is oil to whether there is too much oil. Against the backdrop of the International Energy Agency's prior prediction of a potential global crude supply surplus in the future, the recovery of Middle East supply undoubtedly exacerbates market concerns about future supply-demand imbalance. For oil prices, this means the biggest support factor is disappearing, while new downward pressure is forming. As war risks gradually recede, the market will next return to fundamental factors such as economic growth, demand changes, and global inventory levels.