As the summit between the leaders of China and the United States draws nearer, capital markets are closely monitoring potential policy signals from their discussions. Investors generally anticipate that the meeting between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump will foster a constructive dialogue atmosphere, thereby consolidating the recent stock market rebound and Renminbi appreciation trend supported by favorable trade truce developments. While the market does not harbor excessive expectations for a comprehensive renewal of bilateral relations, the core focus lies on whether leaders can avoid generating new conflicts in sensitive areas such as trade frictions, technological competition, and geopolitics. Industry analysts suggest that even if breakthrough progress proves difficult on these key issues, a generally positive tone and favorable outcomes from the summit could sustain existing market optimism.

This attitude of cautious optimism has prompted capital to adopt tactical allocation strategies toward Chinese assets rather than undertaking a complete structural shift. Since the trade truce agreement reached last October, prices of China-related assets have shown signs of continuous recovery. Currently favored trading directions include holding long positions in the Renminbi and selectively purchasing individual stocks expected to benefit from exchange rate stability, export resilience, domestic technology investment, and artificial intelligence demand. A chief strategist at one institution noted that considering potential risks in energy and petrochemical product supply, the weight of tariffs and trade tensions in investor decision-making has diminished, with maintaining the status quo viewed as an ideal market scenario.

This summit holds symbolic significance, as Trump would become the first sitting U.S. president to visit China in nearly a decade. It is worth noting that the originally scheduled two-day itinerary was previously postponed due to conflicts in the Middle East region. Policy experts assess that the likelihood of reaching major agreements during this meeting is low; instead, smaller-scale accords, such as China increasing purchases of U.S. soybeans or Boeing aircraft, are more probable. However, prior to the summit, the Chinese stock market has performed steadily, indicating that investors generally believe the risk of a sharp deterioration in bilateral relations remains within a controllable range.

In the foreign exchange market, the onshore Renminbi appreciated by 1.7 percent against the U.S. dollar over the past three months, becoming the best-performing currency in Asia and reaching its highest level since the beginning of 2023. This rally is primarily driven by marginal improvements in U.S.-China relations and periodic weakness in the U.S. dollar itself. Additionally, research reports from international investment banks suggest that based on China's strong export momentum and substantial foreign trade surplus, the current Renminbi exchange rate level may be undervalued and retains upward momentum over the next year. Overall, the market's core expectation for this summit can be summarized as seeking risk avoidance rather than substantive breakthroughs. As long as no new signals of confrontation are released, the existing trade truce framework will continue to underpin market sentiment, providing investors with a relatively predictable operational window, making tactical positioning and selective buying the most rational choices at this stage.