Sudden shifts in the Middle East have once again rattled the global energy market. As peace negotiations between the United States and Iran reached a stalemate, international oil prices experienced a sharp rebound during Monday's Asian trading session. President Trump formally rejected Iran's counterproposal, stating publicly that the plan was entirely unacceptable. This declaration effectively shattered previous market optimism regarding the short-term resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Influenced by a rise in geopolitical risk premiums, Brent crude futures increased by approximately 3.1%, breaking through the $104 per barrel barrier. US WTI crude also rose synchronously by over 3%, nearing the $100 integer mark.
The core of this diplomatic setback lies in fundamental disagreements over key demands. The initial US framework required Iran to halt uranium enrichment activities in the long term and remove high-enriched stockpiles in exchange for sanction exemptions and the cessation of military operations. In contrast, Tehran's response demanded comprehensive sanction relief, the withdrawal of US forces from waters near the Strait of Hormuz, and the retention of rights to certain nuclear activities, alongside conditions such as war reparations. Confronted with this vastly divergent proposal, the White House expressed a firm stance through social media channels. The Iranian President promptly responded that dialogue does not equate to surrendering to enemies. Mutual hardline attitudes have cast a shadow over the path to a diplomatic resolution.
Meanwhile, military standoffs in the Persian Gulf region have not eased following negotiations but instead show signs of escalation. Multiple sources indicate that US-flagged merchant vessels encountered drone attacks near Qatari ports. The US Central Command confirmed that more than 20 warships are conducting blockade operations in the area and requested several merchant ships to alter their routes. The Iranian military warned that ships from nations complying with US sanctions would face difficulties when transiting the strait. This confrontational situation has resulted in hundreds of vessels and tens of thousands of sailors being stranded in conflict zones. Anxiety over shipping security has further elevated the risk component within oil prices.
Against this backdrop, President Trump's upcoming itinerary for visiting China has attracted significant attention. Senior US officials disclosed that the Iran issue will be one of the core topics during his talks with Chinese leaders. Washington hopes Beijing, as an important economic partner of Tehran, will exert pressure to cooperate with the US framework. However, considering China holds substantial economic interests in Iran, and Chinese oil tankers have recently broken through the blockade to exit the Persian Gulf, Beijing's specific stance in this game will become a critical variable influencing the situation's trajectory. This remains another focal point for global markets to observe this week.
