Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson emphasized in public remarks in early April that despite facing a complex external environment, the central bank's current policy settings remain within an appropriate range. Speaking at an event on Tuesday, he noted that the current interest rate level is neither overly stimulating nor restrictive. This neutral stance helps support employment growth and, as tariff impacts gradually fade, pushes inflation back to the 2% target level. Regarding future economic prospects, Jefferson maintained a cautious attitude. He believes that although the overall downward trend in inflation is expected to continue, the recent rise in energy prices and the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East have indeed brought more uncertainty to price expectations.

He specifically mentioned that rising energy costs would at least put upward pressure on overall inflation in the short term, while continued trade policy volatility and geopolitical tensions also increased upside risks in forecasts. On the labor market side, Jefferson described it as roughly balanced currently, but this balance is relatively fragile and vulnerable to shocks from new uncertainties. If the highly uncertain situation persists, enterprises may be unwilling to expand recruitment scales due to wait-and-see sentiment, thereby limiting the speed of employment growth over a longer period. Therefore, when assessing potential weaknesses in the labor market, he will continue to closely monitor the actual performance of employment data.

This statement remains consistent with Fed Chair Powell's recent thinking, which holds that maintaining unchanged interest rates and adopting a wait-and-see approach is considered the safest strategy in a highly uncertain macro environment. To some extent, this alleviated market concerns about potential early rate hikes due to Middle East hostilities and inflation pressures. Market interpretations believe Jefferson's remarks conveyed a clear policy signal: the central bank is not in a rush to act, the long-term downward trend in inflation remains unchanged, but short-term upside risks need to be addressed. The policy stance will depend entirely on the actual economic trajectory, refusing preset paths and striving to flexibly adjust based on data to balance the dual goals of employment and price stability.