A hedge fund focused on the energy sector is deploying a seemingly extreme yet effective approach: completely ignoring U.S. President Donald Trump’s statements about the Iran conflict. Geneva-based Anaconda Invest SA said that since the start of the year, the fund has generated approximately 35% in returns by tuning out political noise and concentrating instead on oil services and infrastructure-related assets.
CEO Renaud Saller acknowledged that Trump’s frequent shifts in stance during the conflict—from issuing ultimatums to abruptly retracting them, and from declaring imminent ceasefires to hinting at expanded strikes—have caused severe market whiplash. “His position can change ten times in a single day,” Saller said. “These signals are not only unpredictable but also severely disrupt rational decision-making.” As a result, the team decided to stop reacting to every political headline and instead base its positioning on long-term structural shifts in the energy supply chain.
Since late February, when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran, Anaconda has gradually increased positions in underperforming stocks such as Baker Hughes and Norwegian tanker operator Frontline, while maintaining holdings in Schlumberger and several drilling and engineering firms. Although these names have faced short-term pressure, the fund believes that with the Strait of Hormuz remaining effectively blocked and Middle Eastern production capacity unlikely to recover for years, upstream services and transportation segments stand to benefit from repricing.
This approach is not unique. Several energy-focused portfolio managers have voiced similar frustrations. One industry veteran noted that in the current environment, a single social media post can trigger oil price swings exceeding 10% in a day, rendering intraday trading nearly impossible. Still, there is broad consensus on one point: geopolitical risk has permanently elevated the risk premium across the global energy system, and even if hostilities ease, oil prices are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels.
Saller, who has three decades of experience in energy investing and previously held roles at Fidelity, Soros Fund Management, and Moore Capital, has delivered an annualized net return of 14% over his career—significantly less volatile than peers. He had earlier questioned overly optimistic AI-driven energy demand forecasts, arguing that power grids cannot sustain the surge in computing load and that this mismatch could eventually burst an investment bubble. Now, amid Middle East turmoil, he is responding to uncertainty in a more pragmatic way: stepping away from political narratives and returning to industrial fundamentals.
