U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Monday (March 23) via Truth Social that the United States and Iran had held “very good and productive discussions” over the past two days, and that a planned military strike on Iranian energy facilities would be delayed by five days. The announcement triggered a sharp reversal in global markets, with Dow Jones futures surging nearly 1,000 points (up 2.2%) and international crude oil prices plummeting more than 13%.

From 48-Hour Ultimatum to Five-Day Delay

At 7:23 a.m. local time on March 23, Trump posted: “I am pleased to report that the U.S. and Iran have had very good and productive talks over the past two days regarding fully resolving our hostilities in the Middle East.” He added that, based on these “in-depth, detailed, and constructive” discussions, he had instructed the Department of Defense to postpone the military strike on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure by five days—contingent on the ongoing talks yielding successful outcomes.

This statement marked a stark shift from his position just two days earlier. On March 21, Trump had issued a 48-hour ultimatum demanding Iran “fully and unthreateningly open” the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes that would “hit and destroy” its power generation facilities.

Iran Denies Any Negotiations Took Place

However, Tehran swiftly rejected Trump’s claims. Iran’s Foreign Ministry, Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and senior military officials all denied holding any direct or indirect talks with the United States.

The Iranian Foreign Ministry stated that Trump’s remarks were aimed at lowering energy prices and buying time for U.S. military planning, asserting, “There are no talks whatsoever between Iran and the United States.”

Speaker Ghalibaf called reports of negotiations “fake news” designed to manipulate financial and oil markets and help the U.S. and Israel escape their “deepening quagmire.”

Major General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Aerospace Force, declared that fighting would continue, adding that any perceived “concessions” by the enemy were the result of public support for Iran’s armed forces on the streets.

Markets React Violently to Strike Delay Announcement

- Brent crude plunged more than 13%, briefly falling to $92 per barrel before settling around $91.79.

- WTI crude dropped over 13%, slipping below $85 per barrel.

- Dow futures surged approximately 1,000 points, up 2.2%.

- The S&P 500 rose 2%.

- Spot gold spiked over $100 in minutes, briefly reclaiming the $4,400 level.

The price spread between Brent and WTI crude widened to over $14 per barrel—the highest in years—reflecting heightened risk premiums tied to maritime supply disruptions.

IEA Warns Crisis Could Surpass 1970s Oil Shocks

International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that the situation in the Middle East is “extremely severe,” with potential impacts exceeding the combined effects of the two 1970s oil crises and the energy shock from the Russia-Ukraine war.

On March 11, IEA member countries agreed to release a record 400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves to mitigate supply risks, and they have not ruled out additional releases.

Goldman Sachs simultaneously raised its oil price forecast, projecting that Brent crude will average $110 per barrel in March–April (up from a prior estimate of $98). The bank cautioned that if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at just 5% of normal levels until April 10, prices could keep rising. If the blockade persists for 10 weeks, Brent could surpass its 2008 record high of $147 per barrel.

Despite Trump’s claim of “productive” dialogue, the status of the Strait of Hormuz remains the core point of contention. Iran reiterated that its stance on the waterway has not changed, stating, “The passage will remain closed to aggressors.”

Iran’s parliament further warned that if the U.S. attacks Iranian energy infrastructure, energy and critical installations across the Middle East would become “legitimate targets” subject to “irreversible damage.”

The nearly four-week-long conflict has already severely damaged key regional energy infrastructure, disrupting roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Markets remain highly volatile as geopolitical risk continues to be aggressively priced in.