The US dollar index recorded its biggest decline since late August, and US treasury bond bond futures rose because the public opinion survey data before the US election on Tuesday prompted some investors to cut the so-called Trump trade.

The US dollar spot index fell 0.7% at one point on Monday, with the US dollar falling against all currencies of the 10 nation group. The Mexican peso rose more than 1%, leading the rise of emerging market currencies. US treasury bond bond futures rose slightly.

These trends indicate a reassessment of bullish bets on the US dollar after the US dollar index rose to a four month high last week, based on an increase in Trump's chances of winning. Investors are betting that Trump's low tax and high tariff policies will boost economic growth and inflation, but last weekend's poll data showed that Democratic candidate Harris may have a slight lead in some swing states.

The overall competition is still evenly matched, with no clear winner, and as the voting day approaches, the risk of market volatility is increasing.

Carol Kong, a strategist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said, "The market currently expects Harris to have a higher chance of winning, which is consistent with the trend of the PredictIt gambling market. This means that if Trump wins, there is now more room for the US dollar to strengthen

Market investors have been preparing for the consequences of Trump's possible victory, as his plan to impose tariffs will weaken emerging markets' exports and demand for their currencies.

IG markets analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a report: "After predicting a probability of about 42% for a Republican sweep over the weekend, the market was less certain this morning and hastily cancelled some of the premiums brought by the 'Trump trade in dollars.' Republican sweep refers to Trump taking over the White House with a majority in the Senate and House of Representatives.

s Moines Register and Mediacom, Harris leads Trump by 3 percentage points in the state. This survey, conducted by renowned and reliable polling expert Ann Selzer, is seen as a barometer of Harris' performance in nearby Wisconsin, particularly among female voters.

However, Harris' advantage in all surveys is within the margin of error, and the NBC News poll released last Sunday showed that the campaign is deadlocked.

These opinion polls also affect gambling platforms, which track implicit probability indicators of events based on quotes on websites such as PredictIt. On this platform, Trump's approval rating has dropped from 60% last week to 50%.