Let's start with the conclusion: Taking history as a lesson, the US stock market usually rises after the presidential election, but investors first need to be prepared for some short-term fluctuations. According to data compiled by CNBC, since 1980, from election day to the end of a presidential election year, the three major stock indices have all experienced an average increase. However, investors should not expect the US stock market to rise sharply after the vote ends.

Trey Grayson, who previously served as the president of the National Association of State Secretaries, previously stated that the timing of vote counting across the country may vary after the election day polls are over: "We have 50 states, plus Washington D.C., and our counting practices are almost all different

Grayson said that this could mean "in a very close election, it's almost impossible for us to know on election night who will be the president and who will control the House or Senate

Amy Ho, Executive Director of Strategic Research at JPMorgan Chase, said, "The election is now the center stage for the next catalyst in the financial markets. We warn that the uncertainty of the election results may continue, as the presidential campaign may take several days to confirm the election results, while the House of Representatives campaign may take several weeks

As a background, on November 5th, in addition to holding the 60th presidential election, the United States will also decide on the composition of the 119th new Congress. This year, one-third of the 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 100 seats in the Senate will face re-election. The composition of the parliament will have a significant impact on the governance of the next government, so the current parliamentary election is also a focus of attention from all walks of life.

But the 'lame duck' president doesn't seem to be a bad thing for the US stock market. JPMorgan strategist Dubravko Lakos Bujas predicts that once the results of the US presidential election are announced, US stocks will rise in the final stage of 2024, especially in the event of a political deadlock.

In any situation of deadlock, we believe that as uncertainty is eliminated, volatility decreases, and hedging strategies are closed, US stock prices will rise. As the economy and corporate profits remain resilient, investors will once again turn their attention to the Federal Reserve, "he wrote in a report to clients on Monday.

Previous research by Bank of America has also found that the most desirable thing for the stock market may be the appearance of a "lame duck" president. The bank pointed out that when Democrats take over the White House and Congress is completely controlled by Republicans, or when the two parties form a split Congress, each holding an absolute majority in one chamber. At this point, the return rate of the US stock market will show a higher result than the long-term average return.