Pepperstone: RBA surprise rate hike Australian dol

Description:
After Labor Day and a number of market holidays in Europe, and the beginning of the second trading day, we were awakened by a big "attack" by the RBA. Recalling our previous central bank background analysis, the RBA has been a relatively dovish central bank in the past, especially after a past interest rate decision, and the language in their written narrative has taken a clear dovish turn, implying a future pause in rate hike expectations. At the end of the last April, the Australian CPI was relatively uneven, the headline (7%vs6.9% expected, vs 7.8% in the early period), but the overall is still in line with the RBA's previous "peak shift" curve judgment, leading to the market buying nearly 90% of the "hold" expectations before this interest rate resolution. At 2:30PM in Australia, we saw the RBA make one of the biggest "surprise" rate hikes in recent years, raising the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.85% despite expected buying in the short-term interest rate market and financial market stability. In the latest quarter, the Australian real estate market finally showed signs of temporary relief and stability. This action of RBA can be said to be an "unprecedented" courage, conveying a firm signal to the market that controlling and suppressing the currency is still the top priority. In other economies, especially the FED, before the Fed has fully entered the easing period, the RBA is still the most important thing. Not willing to passively let the Australian dollar lower "import inflation". The reaction of the housing market to the next heavy pound still needs enough time for the market to react and verify, but from the perspective of the stock market, the ASX200 fell more than 80 points in an hour, more than 1% to 7250 reaction, there is still room for the continuation of risk aversion in the week. The 7200 integer / 50-day EMA moving average will be the first test for the bulls.In the long run, although the RBA's "hero" interest rate hike has indeed injected a little uncertainty and volatility into the entire financial system, unless the next Australian CPI has an unexpected acceleration, the current author's expectation is that this may be just a flash in the pan, and the Australian Central Bank's terminal expectation peak or is very close.Forex cross, we see that AUDJPY,AUDNZD have not a small continuation of the upward surge, especially AUDJPY, in 1-2 hours after the news broke more than 100 points to break 92 integer. Think back to last week, when the JPY was the weakest currency after the new Bank of Japan governor's first press conference. In fact, it is understandable that before the new governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, spoke last week, although the market did not have much expectation that there would be policy changes announced at this meeting, the overall is that at some point in the second half of the year, the Bank of Japan may announce plans to change its long-term ultra-loose policy. We can see that although the Ueda has indicated that the discussion and procedure of policy review and revision will begin in the future, the time rhythm may be after 12-18 months, completely dispelling the market's expectation of implicit policy tightening that there may be movement in the second half of this year, leading to the unilateral weakening of the yen since last Friday. Therefore, the upward momentum of the AUDJPY cross, any pullback above the 91 integer during the week, can be considered to be more bullish protection opportunities, if the challenge above touches the 93 integer level and the pre-February high, then enter the wait and see.Similarly, the AUDNZD two ocean crosses, we recall that the last time the RBNZ also unexpectedly raised interest rates by an additional 50 basis points, it broke the 1.07 round number and touched 1.06 before pulling back the volatility, today's latest RBA stimulus, Also let the cross re-break 1.08 on the 1.07 takeoff, the correction above 1.0750 in the shock range can be considered to protect more, 1.0850/1.09 is an important concern resistance level. (Watch for New Zealand employment data tomorrow morning, end NZD strategy if positive)We also have EUROZONE Flash inflation data tonight. Recalling a series of PCE data last week, the overall level is uneven, but the headlines are less than expected DXY pullback, and the overall level remains in the 102-101 shock range. After the latest ISM manufacturing PMI this week exceeded expectations in favor of the dollar, the DXY temporarily returned to the high of the 102 trading range.Before Friday's non-farm data, we also have the US ISM services data in the early hours of Wednesday morning. Taking into account the short-term bottoming of the US dollar and the current speculative position of euro futures, the current concentration of bulls, tonight's EUROZONE Flash inflation rate, if there is an overall worse than expected situation, which is negative for the euro, The day can focus on the EURUSD 1.0950 dense support zone, can finally break the momentum. If it is not overall less than expected, the best situation is to wait for Friday's non-farm to give the maximum momentum of the US dollar, then our EVENT Trader event trading strategy will have a specific analysis and update, which is worth paying attention to.CFTC Futures Exchange EUR speculative positions net long concentration of record high.The gold market meets the previous judgment and continues to oscillate in the opposite direction of the US dollar, and the 1970-2010 range continues to be maintained, but if the US dollar can be stimulated to rise after the digestion of some US economic data this week, it cannot be ruled out that there will be a deeper correction below 1970, but the long-term strategy is still to buy back (refer to last week's article). Last week, there is no five no low to brush the trading range, or still need to be patient.
Hot
-
EURGBP CONTINUES TO BE SUBDUED IN FEBRUARY
source:financefeeds Fx news
-
FINASTRA BRINGS TRADING PLATFORM AND RISK SOLUTION TO TAIWANESE BANKS VIA SYSTEX
source:financefeeds Fx news
-
IS THE UK ECONOMY COMING OUT OF RECESSION? EURGBP LOOKS PROMISING
source:financefeeds Fx news
-
Us stocks fell after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hit back at expectations of a rate cut
source:financefeeds Fx news
-
NEW YORK’S HARDLINE APPROACH TO FRAUD: FROM CRYPTO TO TRUMP
source:financefeeds Fx news
-
ARE INVESTORS TURNING TO COMMODITIES AHEAD OF TOMORROW’S FOMC MINUTES?
source:financefeeds Fx news
-
Australias ASIC has removed 3,500 fraudulent investment websites in an anti-fraud operation
source:WikiFX Fx news
-
WHY RETAIL BROKERS ARE LAUNCHING PRIME SERVICES
source:financefeeds Fx news
-
SKY HIGH INFLATION, BASE RATES, AND BITCOIN: HOW UK ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AFFECTS THE GBP/BTC PRICE
source:financefeeds Fx news
-
WEEKLY DATA: OIL AND GOLD: BRIEF REVIEW BEFORE THE NFP
source:financefeeds Fx news

What is SearchFx?
SearchFx website aims to provide a public complaint platform for the victims of financial investment, and at the same time, it will do its best to solve the exposure for investors, so as to finally achieve a public welfare website with the goal of recovering losses. More>

