Pepperstone: May US Non-farm data trading strategy

Description:
Background analysis:Today's non-farm is the release of the first US level 1 economic data in May, which is also one of the first major data (along with CPI) that the Federal Reserve will pay attention to and affect the policy guidance after the FOMC's decision to raise interest rates just ended the day before yesterday. The DXY dollar index once returned to the low of the trading range 101, and gold easily broke a new all-time high near the reaction of touching 2080. Today's data, whether there is an overall exceeding expectations, or an overall missing expectations, will bring a lot of volatility and trading opportunities. It is clear that the market has so far bought into the top of what is likely to be the last rate hike of the year after the FOMC (review of the previous market analysis), so the only thing that cannot happen is that the labor market heats up again, putting new pressure on the Fed to eventually control the currency, so such a surprise would also cause the largest expected replacement buying. And trading opportunities. Of course, in turn, if the overall is not as expected, the dollar finally broke 101 under the technical level, it may only be a matter of time, according to the technical form and sentiment within the golden week, the short-term re-test before the high strategy can be considered. Because of the recent stock market reaction to non-farm data there is some uncertainty, not necessarily positive or counter-cyclical (good data is not necessarily positive or negative, depending on whether the market focuses on the impact of the Federal Reserve policy on the stock market or the labor market has more impact on corporate earnings), this non-farm index trading avoid.From some labor 2-line data that has come out this week, it is also relatively hierarchical, there is not much unilateral invisible bias, and the expected distribution range is mostly between 140,000 and 230,000 (minimum 94,000, maximum 265,000).Trading thinking: Situation 1: overall exceeding expectations (headline 2x million, hourly wage above 4.3%, unemployment below 3.5%) good for the dollar.Considering that the market has digested the relatively hawkish speech of the ECB's interest rate resolution, but EURUSD has temporarily lost the technical momentum of bulls and returned to the 1.10 integer level, we mention that there has been a relatively concentrated EURUSD bulls recently, so we can consider the continuation of EURUSD below 1.1050 (maximum stop loss). 1.0980/1.0950/1.09 support is the likely target at all levels.Situation 2: Overall less than expected (headline 14 below, hourly earnings below 4.1%, unemployment rate above 3.7%), the short-term continuation of the dollar's volatile downward momentum.In this case, considering the strategic thinking that the current price of gold continues to protect the high before the upward adjustment within the day, the 2030-2020 range is the stop loss range of the key protection of bulls, and the upper 2050/2070,20 US dollars is a target range.Note: If there is no obvious one-sided data that is uneven, wait and see.Disclaimer: The information and opinions involved in this article are only for consultation and exchange of investment ideas, and do not constitute any investment transaction advice.
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