MARKETS McKenzie Week Ahead: Will US inflation coo

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The bright spot came over the weekend with the latest personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed's preferred gauge of U.S. inflation. Traders are also watching to see if the positive momentum in April's services PMI continues into May, while UK inflation will also be closely watched to see if it falls from a high of +10.1% a month ago. The Japanese inflation report is one of a number of other important ecological data releases on this week's calendar.Here are the week's major events:MondayCOVID-19 winner, reopening loser Zoom reported earnings after offering an upbeat outlook for 2023 in its last quarterly update. Revenue growth will slow this year, with Zoom's revenue between $4.435 billion and $4.455 billion, implying 1.1% growth. Current-quarter adjusted earnings guidance was 96 cents to 98 cents per share on revenue of $1.080 billion to $1.085 billion. On the economic front, traders will be watching for the latest UK house price data, Japan's core machinery orders, Germany's Bubba report and EZ consumer confidence.Revenue: Zoom Video (ZM)TuesdayIt's PMI Day! Purchasing managers' index data for services and manufacturing from Australia, France, Germany, the eurozone, the UK and the US trickled down throughout the day. For sterling crosses, traders will be watching for any momentum from the April report, which showed the services sector expanding at a decent pace and inflationary pressures re-emerging. Similarly, the U.S. composite index rose to an 11-month high in April, and inflation has regained momentum. Will higher interest rates slow things down? Economic data has been messy lately, so traders will be hungry for more clarity.Revenue: Intuitive (INTU), Palo Alto Networks (PANW)WednesdayTraders want to see if there are any surprises from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after last month's market rate hike of 50 basis points took the official cash rate to a 14-year high of 5.25 percent. The RBNZ also left the door open for further tightening, with most economists at least 25 basis points left. At the start of the European session, all eyes were on the UK inflation report, as last month's double-digit numbers left the Bank of England with no choice but to raise interest rates again. Another reading close to 10% will keep pressure on the central bank to do more. Finally, traders will be paying close attention to the minutes of the Fed's May meeting, which raised rates by 25 basis points and signaled a pause/leave the door open for a June rate hike.Earnings: Xpeng Motor (XPEV), Nvidia (NVDA), Snowflake (Snow)ThursdayThese Fed minutes will drive a lot of price action overnight. Traders will also be watching the Bank of Japan core CPI and final German GDP data ahead of the second reading of US GDP for the first quarter. The forecast shows a slowdown in the US economy, with GDP at +1.1% versus expectations of 2%, down from 2.6% in the fourth quarter, suggesting that the Fed rate hike may be taking effect. Pending U.S. home sales and natural gas storage data are also due.Earnings: Medtronic (MDT), Costco Wholesale (cost)FridayInflation dynamics in Japan are key to the Bank of Japan's exit from ultra-loose monetary policy, with significant implications for the yen. So the rise in Tokyo's core CPI to 3.5 per cent in the last survey will be closely watched. UK retail sales are also in focus, but the biggest focus is the latest US PCE inflation report. The personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy and is the Fed's preferred inflation measure, rose 0.3% in March from a month earlier and 4.6% from a year earlier. Despite signs of slowing economic growth, a persistently tight labor force and stubbornly high inflation remain, which could allow the Fed to further delay market expectations for a pause in June.
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